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Comment by actuator | Hacker News Reader

I really doubt something bad will happen to him even if he is under CCP custody. CCP can't be that stupid that they let a successful entrepreneur with an amazing story and global appeal go missing.

Because if he really disappears it will cause talent drain like anything, which will be just stupid to the ambitions CCP has for PRC.

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There are two key areas of focus for the Chinese government, there's growing the power of their country as a whole, and there's maintaining the party's power over the country. Take a look at Hongkong - is it a smart move for China to destroy one of its wealthiest, most powerful international cities? No. But it is vital to China's second goal - to maintain absolute control over the country.

So far it's been pretty clear cut the first goal hasn't been too badly impacted by their second goal.

The Hong Kong episode might not upset people in PRC as they are being brought under same laws as people in PRC. Top entrepreneurs/researchers/engineers can buy HK activists being malicious or they can be just indifferent to them as that is not their problem.

But this will be as this is a lot more relatable.

Also, the value of HK for PRC has reduced over time so PRC could afford to do it now.

My money is on the military invasion of Taiwan happening in May of this year.

Not only is the incoming Biden administration entirely favorable to China (and includes some of the same advisors who had Obama stand down during the Scarborough Shoal incident), but May is the month where China once again will hold the Presidency over the UN Security Council and gets to set its agenda.

They're perfectly set up to stymy any international response that may be called for. Given the money flowing westward under Belt and Road, I imagine that won't be much of an outcry anyway, save for the expected parties (Japan, The Philippines, Vietnam).

Does the security council thing even matter honestly?

Like even if PLA marches on Taiwan now and US doesn't want to get in the war, what difference can security council make which otherwise would not have been possible outside security council?

No. Actually it doesn't matter at all, but China would rather not lose face of it being on the agenda to discuss at all. And that does matter, at least to China.

If they can sew up the whole thing inside of the month, I think it's a move they'll definitely make.

Plus the rest of the world is preoccupied with this virus.

You are assuming CCP thinks like you do, what if sending a message is extremely important to them?

Yes, and what if they see extraordinary people as a threat? They might be willing to sacrifice some potential growth if it helps them staying in power...

Yes, and everyone gets the message that even if successful and immense value generator for PRC, you can't expect to be safe for saying even non political stuff. This will just cause a chilling effect, there are plenty of brilliant Chinese people who might not like that.

Cultural revolution was not that long ago: 1966-1976. There has already been a chilling effect before Jack Ma. I would wager control is utmost importance to CCP. Not as concerned about the chilling effect on their top performers.

But more to lose now and countries would readily welcome the top performers.

>plenty of brilliant Chinese people who might not like that

And a almighty Party who exactly wants that.

They disappeared the head of Interpol a while back and that didn't cause much blowback.

A decade ago I would've believed this to be the case

With what they've been doing in surveillance infra and hk in recent years though it does look like they're not nearly as subtle anymore

Possibly also just a change in our awareness, but I wouldn't be surprised if they write him off in a covid fatality or something

I would have agreed with you a year ago, but I think I was naive about how much Xi wanted to play by international norms.

Pretty clear now that he's willing to be as ruthless as he thinks he can get away with... and this likely counts.

I think the appeal of 'successful entrepreneur' vanishes quickly if those in power feel that entrepreneur is not doing as they wish / they feel threatened / or some other situation.

There are always more entrepreneurs.

The CCP did nothing he was depressive and made suicide by jumping out of a windows.

Watch the documentary:

https://www.arte.tv/en/videos/083456-000-A/china-the-disappe...

What would be stupid about it?

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