Peloton is a fad and will be dropped for the next exercise fad in 2-5 years, just like SoulCycle was. For now, they are feasting.
I don't think you can pass this off as a fad- Soul Cycle first hit the scene around 2009, its still around- and they have just released a bike and service as well. Other look alikes have come on the market as well- Tonal and Mirror being the biggest. This is looking less like a fad and more like they were the leading edge of a smart exercise equipment industry.
Sure the specific piece of equipment that is in vogue might come and go, but I think Peloton is here to stay. This doesn't mean that gyms are going to close in the long run, but workout equipment as a service is a class of product that I feel is with us for the long haul.
Its success was mostly due to its novelty and exclusivity. After a while, copycats and their push for growth did them in.
Peloton is the same. They are first to market and have cultivated a level of exclusivity, but there is nothing unique about them that other businesses can’t copy over time (it’s already happening — most exercise companies now have their own Peloclones).
She used to spend a jaw dropping amount on Soul- it was her favorite activity to take her clients to. Around the time they IPO'ed, she felt a change- the expansion took her favorite instructors out of her favorite studios, and often even out of the area as they helped open up locations in LA, Miami, etc. The new ones never had quite the same magnetism- which is of course subjective- most people have their personal favorites, and while there was some overlap, this could differ substantially from person to person. They used to give gifts to their top riders at the end of the year in the form of free classes, that went away, replaced with "charitable donations" and eventually just dropped altogether. Top instructors tried to branch out on their own, some successful, some not, but the point being is that really it was over expansion and IMHO brand dilution, which I guess you could call exclusivity (though I personally feel its a bit different than just exclusivity) that really sent them into a downward trajectory. She went from taking 4-5 classes a week, to mixing in Cycle Bar and other studios, to finally in October 2019 just deciding to get a Peloton.
All that said, they still had 1.62 million rides in 2019... which while down from ~1.8, that's not exactly a fad or a dead business- I actually thought their drop would be far bigger to be honest. Personally though I feel this was less of an effect of a fad, than the more typical story of the bean counters moving in and pursuing growth and next quarter's numbers at the cost of the quality of the brand.
To be honest that article was quite eye opening- I guess what I thought was a unique experience and fandom by my wife was something that the culture carefully cultivated.
I tend to look down on the classist assignment of folks' motivations for buying things. It's almost always projection. How many years did we have to hear about the "status symbol" of a starbucks cup? If only $2 for a cup of black coffee could buy you status, right?
One good example is in-line skating/rollerblading. It was a very popular activity--at least in urban areas--a number of years back and it just sort of petered out. You rarely see someone skating these days.
Why's that unreasonable? When I was trying to get back into shape and add some strength training, I started seeing a personal trainer, which I honestly, probably stuck with for too long. Given per-session costs, it was costing me upwards of $500/mo. Of course that includes use of gym facilities and 1:1 training and advice. Probably one of the best things I ever did.
Basic gym memberships have gotta be at least $100/mo. I'm sure there are countless people paying $200/mo and up. Obviously you get access to a lot more equipment, but you have to go there, too.
I just don't see $40/month as a lot. Maybe I'm strange.
Since then, my wife also added a Peloton treadmill to the mix, which is over 4k. It uses the same subscription. As do the Yoga and stretching and bodyweight strength classes.. and meditation if you're into that. Both of us, 2 pieces of equipment, unlimited classes, on your phone, appletv, whatever. $40/mo.
On the average evening we've got the treadmill and bike going at the same time and when she finishes with her run she's doing stretching and core stuff in the living room while I do more on the bike. The subscription starts to sound like a pretty good deal. But don't tell them that, because we're locked in thanks to the hardware :)