Comment by woofie11 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by woofie11 | Hacker News Reader

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I'm not actually sure it is too reductive. Game theory predicts almost exactly the behavior we see.

My own observation is that we saw major progress with the Renaissance, then the Enlightenment, the Constitution, and so on. Progress slowed around a hundred years ago. From around 1920-1970, we had progress on issues of representation, race, and gender, but otherwise, political behavior gradually drifted towards the Nash equilibrium.

1970-2020, progress mostly stopped, and we've pushed hard to optimizing to game theory. Politicians who now get elected play a near-optimal game, and playing this game is overt.

To make progress, we'd need significant reform of the system.

I would argue, though, that a statement like "money in politics is a big problem on both sides. To be fair, it’s been a big problem in all of politics throughout all recorded history" is very reductionist.

For most of history, it wasn't so much money as military might. If I had money and you had military, soon you'd have both. Money was a component of buying military, but it was just one component (see Rome v Carthage for an example, or Athens v Sparta).

I'd much rather be controlled by someone corrupted by money than by a corrupt warlord where I'm a serf. Democracy is a big step up. We just need another step up right now... and pretending we don't is actively harmful.

> From around 1920-1970, we had progress on issues of representation, race, and gender, but otherwise, political behavior gradually drifted towards the Nash equilibrium. 1970-2020, progress mostly stopped,

Um if nothing else a LOT in the US happened with regards to women’s rights and feminism between 1970 and today. And LGBTQ rights.

Oh yeah - Obama! First black President. Kind of a big deal when it comes to race and social justice.

Also it’s just a hugely broad statement you are making. I’m not gonna speculate about the sweep of hisiory.

Also your point doesn’t really address the specific points I mentioned - real, actual differences between the parties.

[EDIT: For example if the Republican Party suddenly endorsed the Green New Deal (or other climate legislation) I don’t see the Democrats who already support such legislation flip-flopping.

Same with gun control laws.

And with more federal pandemic relief funds to individuals and states and cities.

And the Affordable Care Act.

And abortion.

And so on. ]

They flopped like this on surveillance about two decades ago. Democrats were pro-surveillance, and Republicans were pro-privacy. Now, it's the other way around. I could list of a dozen examples when one party flips, the other flops.

And it's exactly what game theory predicts.

To go with even your first example, Nixon created the EPA.

Flops happen when both parties go too far left or too far right. At that point, it makes sense for the "crowded" party to leapfrog and grab the coveted center.

Sure, of course there are examples of parties flopping. I'm saying that it's not a constant rule.

Like, I don't think the Democrats became less invested in environmental regulation when Nixon created the EPA.

Or with healthcare. Or abortion.

You can't just point to a flop and use it to say "oh both parties are the same and don't really stand for anything."

I don't think I ever said "oh both parties are the same and don't really stand for anything."

I think what I said was that both parties try to be just at the 50 percentile mark of voters, since that wins elections, while candidates try to be at the 75th/25th percentile since that wins primaries (and then sprint to the center).

If both parties are at e.g. the 36th and 37th percentile, the 36th percentile party can jump to the 38th and be wildly successful. That's what happened with surveillance. After 9/11, the electorate shifted, and Republicans leapfrogged the Democrats, leading to a lot of success.

Both parties fundamentally want to win first.

Whether that's good or bad depends on what you compare it to. You can view it as lack of spine, or as a democratic check-and-balance.

I agree that politicians and political parties want to win.

And I appreciate your clarification that (if I’m understanding correctly) you do believe there are currently some meaningful differences between the two parties.

The percentages bit I didn’t really follow (where’s the data/evidence? Or is this a theory?), and, if I’m being honest, on a day like today with the attempted coup and all, I simply don’t have the motivation to parse and understand more of what you are trying to say.

But I appreciate your clarification and additional effort to explain your intended point.

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