The thing with XMPP vs Matrix is weight: and XMPP server is featherweight compared to Matrix due to their different nature, so I honestly believe that XMPP still has a future.
(And maybe one day, Pidgin 3 will see the light[^4])
[^1]: https://conversations.im/
[^2]: https://github.com/petermolnar/awesome-pidgin-plugins
[^3]: https://gist.github.com/petermolnar/10d815eae0b7cbda2b1e5948...