>This explanation is much more plausible than a Great Filter.
I don't see how it's any different from the great filter explanation. It's just great filter with statistical distributions.
I don't see how it's any different from the great filter explanation. It's just great filter with statistical distributions.
However, as per my other comments, you can update the distributions of your parameters in different ways, such that none of the events in the Drake equation have a particularly low probability.
Then the Great Filter disappears and there's no specific or few set of events to point to - it's just that the probability of all events succeeding in combination is extremely low.