We're proactively working on P2P matrix, as per https://matrix.org/blog/2020/06/02/introducing-p-2-p-matrix/, to prevent this risk.
Matrix at least seems to have fewer barriers to usability/functionality when self-hosting, which decreases the detriments of self-hosting and slightly lowers the drive to centralize, but until P2P is default standard for clients the convergence is likely to remain with a mostly centralized federation infrastructure target than a heavily decentralized one.