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There are 260 million American adults. Already 12 million receiving a vaccine. Approaching 1,000,000 per day receiving first dose. At that rate we’ll need 118 days to have half the population vaccinated with a first dose in mid-May and the second dose in early/mid-June.

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OK. So early summer. And that's 50% which some would say is not nearly high enough for people to get on with their lives (but may, or may not, be a reasonable target--especially given that a fair number of people will hold off).

Also unknown is the number protected by prior infection. Anywhere from 10-30%.

I think we’ll see R’ start to plunge during summer due to weather and never climb back up from increase in immunity. But “back to normal”. January earliest.

Most events people I know are betting on things being normal-ish by the fall. Doesn't mean they're right of course although they were right enough to shut things down at a time when many people were still thinking it wasn't that big a deal.

There are also gradations of normal although once you fully open up restaurants, have indoor concerts, packed auditoriums, etc. most things you could do to reduce spread are pretty much theater at that point (other than possibly requiring vaccinations to fly, enter venues, workplaces).

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