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Comment by npunt | Hacker News Reader

Ben missed an important part of the geopolitical difference between TSMC and Intel: Taiwan is much more invested in TSMC's success than America is in Intel's.

Taiwan's share of the semiconductor industry is 66% and TSMC is the leader of that industry. Semiconductors helps keep Taiwan from China's encroachment because it buys them protection from allies like the US and Europe, whose economies heavily rely on them.

To Taiwan, semiconductor leadership is an existential question. To America, semiconductors are just business.

This means Taiwan is also likely to do more politically to keep TSMC competitive, much like Korea with Samsung.

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Taiwan nor TSMC cannot produce the key tool to make this all work: The photolithography device itself.

Only ASML currently has that technology.

And it turns out, the photolithography device isn’t really a plug and play device. It’s very fussy. It breaks often. And it requires an army of engineers (as cheap as possible), to man the devices, and to produce the required yield, in order to make the whole operation profitable.

This is the Achilles’ Heel of the whole operation.

I suspect that China is researching and producing their own photolithography devices, independent of American, or western technology. And when they crack it, then they will recapture the entire Chinese market for themselves. And TSMC will become irrelevant to any strategic or tactical plans for them.

> Semiconductors helps keep Taiwan from China's encroachment because it buys them protection from allies like the US and Europe, whose economies heavily rely on them.

Are there any signed agreements that would enforce this? If China one day suddenly decides to take Taiwan, would the US or Europe step in with military forces?

The closest I've found is this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act

Not guaranteed "mutual defense" of any sort, but the US at least has committed itself to helping Taiwan protect itself with military aid. The section on "Military provisions" is probably most helpful.

There are no official agreements since neither US nor any major European countries recognize Taiwan/ROC but US has declared multiple times that they would defend Taiwan (see ‘ Taiwan Relations Act’ & Six Assurances’)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act

> The Taiwan Relations Act does not guarantee the USA will intervene militarily if the PRC attacks or invades Taiwan

It would not be wise to commit to intervene in all circumstances. Similarly, also the NATO treaties do not specify in detail how the allies have to react in case of an attack.

Not an agreement, but the US stance towards the defense of Taiwan (ROC) was recently declassified early: https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2021/01/15/declass...

China's GDP is projected to surpass the US GDP in 2026 [1]. After that it won't be long until the Chinese defense spending will surpass the US one. And after that, it won't be long until the US and its allies will realize it will be healthy for them to mind their own business when China takes over Taiwan.

[1] https://fortune.com/2021/01/18/chinas-2020-gdp-world-no-1-ec...

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