It’s a simple and boring explanation but from my perspective also the most likely.
It’s a simple and boring explanation but from my perspective also the most likely.
The key quantity on which the argument hinges is
T * c / D
where T is the average lifespan of the intelligent being in question, c is the speed of light and D is a typical separation between stars in a region of interest.In our stellar neighborhood there are about 0.004 stars per cubic light year [1], so if we choose to measure D as the reciprocal of the cubic root of stellar density then D is about 6.3 light years which is of the same order of magnitude as the distance to Proxima Centauri (~4.2 ly). This quantity varies somewhat, e.g. global clusters have about 0.4 stars per cubic parsec [2] which is more than 0.01 stars per cubic light year for D of 4.4 ly.
In case of humans, T is about 79 years. We don't know anything about any alien lifeforms, but even among lifeforms on Earth T varies significantly. For example, Bowhead whales can live more than 200 years [3]. Traveling 4 ly at 5% of the speed of light is a possibility for such creatures. Moreover, entities with artificial intelligence could live (function?) significantly longer. Possibly forever.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stellar_density
T * c / D
I'd think that it's also important to have a component that quantifies the lifetime of a technologically advanced civilization, as the universe isn't just separated by space, but also by vast expanses of time as well.I'm not belittling your example, just trying pointing out that when speculating in this area, it's useful to include a time component related to civilizations as well as an individual lifetime component.
However, if you want a point of concern, I'll throw out some alternatives. I'm going to ignore generation ships, because those seem a trifle unlikely (too complex, rather cruel to the inhabitants), but let's imagine some embryo-laden carriers, freeze-dried aliens, and von Neumann probes.
Now, again, that's still a long way for very little gain. There's nothing physical you could bring back to your civilization that would be "worth" the trip, but what about some irrational civilizations? Religious zealots, or just a large enough portion of a technologically advanced society that says, "Screw it, let's hurl some madly self-replicating probes out into the spiral arm." Ninety-nine percent of their civilization might think that is a terrible idea (or pick your proportion), but there only needs to be a few to pull it off.
Why are we not seeing the von Neumann probes? I will admit that the other scenarios are less likely. But where are they? Even at a ten thousandth the speed of light they would have swarmed the galaxy, replicating down one spiral arm, into the core, and back out along the remaining arms.
I used to think that as well, but with all of the recent proof of quantum entanglement, I'm not so sure anymore.
https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/295013-scientists-captur...
Edit: better link for Chinese experiments from Science Mag.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/quantum-internet-clo...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-experiment-quantum-com...
https://newatlas.com/telecommunications/us-government-bluepr...
As for QE: I first I need to send you a particle at sunlight speeds. Then I measure my particle and get the value N, which means I immediately know that your particle must be -N. Great for key exchange: I can send you let’s say 2048 of these particles and then we instantly know each other’s keys/have a shared key, while also knowing if the transmission has been tempered with in transit. But I can’t send you a message I choose.