2020 Saw Unprecedented Murder Spike in Major U.S. Cities
statista.com
statista.com
Also, it's not as easy to track but it'd be interesting to see if attempted murders saw the same spike. This increase could merely be a result of overtaxed hospitals saving fewer people.
At a glance at the linked source data, it looks like Seattle came in with the lowest values on this list, at 47 murders for 2020 vs 27 in 2019.
One thing of note is that some of the values appear to be for not quite the entirety of 2020.
The first sentence of the story's second paragraph includes a link to a Twitter post [1] from the person who compiled the data, which contains a second link [2] to the Google Doc that he created.
1 - https://twitter.com/Crimealytics/status/1343950694672379905
2 - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z9b5mIwztAwmEHJW7Q5D...
It's usually something people who are apt to do that do (I know almost self referential). But what I mean is, it's possible that people given to violence either didn't see the same deterrence so they acted, or as you are saying people who would be unlikely suspects were pushed over the edge and did this as a side-effect of the virus.
Also police are one of the few things that didn't have a big drop in the number of people working it this year so I'm not sure where the smaller deterrent would be coming from. There's very few people who are walking around thinking about killing someone that then see a cop are decide not to. A lot of murders aren't even premeditated they're short spur of the moment violent outbursts.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/20/facts-about...
I can see that the increased stress would correlate to a small rise in domestic violence, but remember also that for the first half of thr lockdown, people in the lower income tiers were getting more in unemployment (due to the extra 600 / week bonus) than they had been getting from their actual jobs.
I happen to know someone in that position who wasn't stressed, just bored.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/higher-temperatures-can-le....
https://www.statista.com/statistics/283093/homicides-in-the-...
The most obvious explanation is also the simplest: American cities spent most of 2020 attacking their own police forces, psychologically and financially.
The UK - and the rest of the developed world - did a lot more income support to the general public.
https://www.newsweek.com/heres-how-us-coronavirus-stimulus-p...
> Britain's government is issuing grants covering 80 percent of unemployed workers' salaries up to a total of £2,500 ($3,084) a month. The package also reportedly contains statutory sick pay for employees that have been told to self-isolate.
That's more per month than the US has given in total.
There is a recent shift of police and social resources away from "crime as usual" toward the handling of social unrest and crowds/mobs. Most departments try to anticipate such shifts, which strongly affect the size and allocation of manpower within the police department. A small police department can find itself unable to investigate serious crimes in times of social unrest. Anyone who is intelligent and who wants to commit a premeditated crime knows this and could be expected to take advantage of it.
The equivalent to the second is tossing heads every time. The equivalent to the third is tossing far more heads than tails when you toss many times.
From the chart apparently linked in one of the sources, half the cities listed had under a hundred. Only two had one a day, Chicago and Philadelphia. That's "a few" in this kind of statistics.
>Second, murders rising in ALL large cities by a large percentage is unlikely.
When ~10 events can constitute a large percentage, it's not that unlikely.
I won't say there wasn't something that was worse this year compared to most, I put forward my guess as to a primary cause in my first post. Using metrics like "percentage change" hide the actual events that happened, and makes the problem sound more terrifying than it actually is.
The number of tosses matters. As the number of tosses increases, it is increasingly unlikely to toss all heads and increasingly unlikely to toss a great more heads than tails. This is probability and the central limit theorem.
Given that this is exactly what happened in Ferguson and Baltimore after those cities’ riots, the increase was sadly predictable. Baltimore’s experience bodes especially poorly for the country; its homicide rate has stayed elevated ever since.
The slaughter of an extra 3000-4000 people in the span of seven months is a colossal tragedy. I hope that the cheerleaders of future racial reckonings will do all in their power to prevent similar disasters.
[1] https://www.thetrace.org/2020/12/shootings-data-philadelphia...
How exactly do you think the BLM protesters are responsible for these murders, or could have acted to prevent them?
Here's a brief summary of violence that occurred in one day of BLM protests in the state of New York:
3 Buffalo cops run over
1 Bronx cop run over
2 NYPD officers assaulted
https://www.syracuse.com/state/2020/06/suv-rams-police-in-bu...
When looting and vandalism are allowed to reign supreme, the atmosphere alone sets the stage for more violence.
Violence begets violence, whether it's committed by BLM protesters or a mob of Trump supporters.
>> How exactly do you think the BLM protesters are responsible for these murders, or could have acted to prevent them?
> Here's a brief summary of violence that occurred in one day of BLM protests in the state of New York:
> 3 Buffalo cops run over ...
> Violence begets violence, whether it's committed by BLM protesters or a mob of Trump supporters.
So you're saying the increase in homicides is BLM protesters (or hangers on) murdering cops?
>> When looting and vandalism are allowed to reign supreme, the atmosphere alone sets the stage for more violence.
>> Violence begets violence, whether it's committed by BLM protesters or a mob of Trump supporters.
>> Violence begets violence, whether it's committed by BLM protesters or a mob of Trump supporters.
By that logic, you should be blaming the police. Why did you stop tracing back once you got to BLM?
Also, please don't use HN primarily for political battle. It looks like you've been coming close to that line lately, and that's the line at which we start banning accounts. We have to, because otherwise this place will just turn into a political flamewar site, and we can't allow that. I've written many explanations about this if you (or anyone) cares to read them.
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Moreover, we ban accounts that use the site primarily for political battle, regardless of their politics. We have to, because it destroys the curious conversation that HN is supposed to be for.
Your account has been using HN primarily for political battle and just slid significantly downward toward flamewar hell, so I briefly just banned it, but I decided to give you the benefit of the doubt instead, and assume that you didn't know what the rules are. Please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and use HN as intended in the future. That means thoughtful conversation on a variety of intellectually curious topics, no flamewar, and not using the site primarily for political arguments.
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At the very least acknowledge a few confounding factors if you really insist on making a case for your selected reason.
Any idea why the difference?
I’m thinking about people getting frustrated and using their guns in a fight, rather than planning to and intentionally trying to kill an “enemy”.
[0] https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-...
Also people miss a lot.
This should be plainly obvious.
What point are you making? Other than perhaps unintentionally backing the pro-gun lobby idea that guns are just tools.
That if you're worried about the harmful effects of guns, don't discount suicide just because those people aren't harming you.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/homicide.htm
Homicide rate in EU is 1.7, US is 5.8 or 4.3 (Firearms only).
Go look at a heat map of per-capita gun homicides in the US. This is not a "national" problem. Communicating this has been very challenging for people who live in Chicago in particular - everyone thinks the entire city is a killzone, when in fact there are perfectly safe neighborhoods, and other neighborhoods that are a warzone. But if you were to only see the citywide statistics for Chicago murders, you wouldn't even leave the airport.
It's a culture problem. America has a violent culture.
It's weird to me that we so often discuss firearm violence without also considering the prevalence of other forms of violence; these are symptoms of an underlaying concern.
All of this is irrelevant in any case. 99.95% of guns are benign in the US. This isn't conjecture - its a clear ratio of total guns in circulation vs gun homicides. A law-abiding owner of a gun should be as concerned by a gun used in a murder as a chef would be concerned about someone being stabbed with a pearing knife.
If you want a more realistic answer, I would suggest both economic desperation (unemployment, inequality, need) and pressures due to a new and unnatural mode of living enforced on the population (lockdown). Or if you want to get political, all of the cities in the infographic are blue cities that moved to lax policing policies in 2020.
If the correlation were strong, you would expect to see them increase similarly...
Keep in mind that GVA does not discount suicides from their report.
In USA there are more non-gun murders per capita than total murders in Australia.
By comparison, contrary to popular belief, several European countries allow people to buy firearms with similar availability as the US. The main examples that come to mind are Switzerland, Serbia, and the Czech Republic. The last one also permits concealed carry of firearms - something several US states prohibit.
Widespread availability of firearms is likely a magnifying factor in areas with conditions that lead to crime, but plenty of areas with widespread gun ownership like much of rural America have low homicide rates.
By comparison, America has an estimated 353 million civilian guns, netting to just over each man, woman, & baby having a gun. Additionally, the laws are extremely lax meaning the government has poor records, enforcement, & a hodge-podge of laws across state lines around gun ownership.
The type of superficial comparison that’s always trotted out in this kind of discussion is always so frustratingly predictable and superficial. Studies have repeatedly shown that in American society, increased gun availability directly tracks with homicides & mass casualty events. You can either regulate guns more akin to the nations you hold up as “exemplars” or make gun ownership less common. All attempts to regulate this situation in any way, shape, or form is regularly fought by Republicans, even for “common sense” legislation that has broad bipartisan appeal across party lines. Heck, often times people thing the government already does background checks for gun ownership without realizing the huge loopholes & intentional castrating of the background check process render the entire process a joke.
https://fee.org/articles/the-myth-that-australias-gun-laws-r...
The relationship between poverty and shooting deaths is very strong though.
Bullets; and by extension guns.
TFA doesn't go into detail (that I could find) about the cause of deaths that occurred in the mentioned 'violent deaths'.
I should made that clearer in my comment. Apologies.
From the linked article:
> New York's homicide count went up by nearly 40 percent with Mayor Bill de Blasio stating that the figures should worry all New Yorkers and it has to stop.
Numbers started to rise after this:
> The New York police commissioner announced on Monday that he was disbanding the Police Department’s anti-crime units: plainclothes teams that target violent crime and have been involved in some of the city’s most notorious police shootings. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/15/nyregion/nypd-plainclothe...
The other cities mentioned had similar decisions that seem to have backfired spectacularly.
[https://omaha.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/omaha-saw-a-61...]
- do you have a finer grained (month by month, for example) break down to support your assertion of the correlation in timing of the NYPD disbanding the "anti-crime" units and the homicide rate?
- if so, is there something indicating there is causation rather than a coincidence?
Another example:
Portland defunded the Gun Violence Reduction Team at the beginning of July.
28 shootings in July of 2019. 99 in July of 2020. The police chief said it was because of a lack of resources.
Obviously you can disagree with the GP, but please do so within the site guidelines. If you'd review and follow them from now on, we'd be grateful: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html.
Note these ones:
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How does that change in June explain rising homicides in the first half of the year? And how does this New York policy explain homicides in 52 other cities? Including, by the way, the likes of Tulsa or Omaha[0] which I suspect aren't sharing too many policy prescriptions with NYC?
[0]: https://twitter.com/Crimealytics/status/1343950694672379905/...
Turns out - correlation doesn't equal causation.
From my criminology 101 class - crime goes down when the likelihood of being arrested/convicted of a crime goes up. The problem is that the likelihood of being arrested/convicted is a complex system whereby no one single factor can affect it.
Especially last year you had several huge sociological factors that likely played into this: social reactions to BLM, riots, domestic terrorism, record high unemployment, mental health contributions due to stay-home regulations, AND defunding of the police.
To pretend that one factor is the only contributing factor to a complex system is a fool's errand.