If you ignore the evidence outside molecular signature yes, the “Moon of Alabama” hypothesis sounds plausible. Given the facts and circumstances, however, the conclusion becomes unavoidable.
Despite the fact that the odds are stacked (media controlled by United Russia, etc...) Navalny got 27% of the vote in 2013 Moscow election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Moscow_mayoral_election#C...
That is not exactly "zero actual support". And that was before the 2018 "pension" reforms.