Programmers today are like scribes were in the middle ages. When 90% of the world knows basic programming, I think that we will have a profoundly different conception of both computation and society.
At the same time; not everyone became a blacksmith.
Both analogs bear aspects of truth since software has the characteristics of being both a machine (crafted precision tool), as well as being information itself (freely spread & adaptable). Its future is probably some superposition of both.
Similarly, "basic programming" is a spectrum that starts at simple Excel formulas.
Well considering the literacy rate is only 86% in the world today, this seems like a very lofty goal.