J. M. Keynes and the Visible Hands

> Keynes dangerously underestimated Germany’s economic capacity to bear the cost of war reparations; as a result, those predicting again and again Germany’s economic collapse were caught off guard when the country proved able not only to withstand the terms of the treaty but also to thrive during a decade of military and industrial development.

What? The reparations were cut over and over again due to Germany not meeting its obligations. And partly due to the fact that Keynes voice was actually heard.

From Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_reparations)

> The Treaty of Versailles [...] required Germany to pay 132 billion gold marks [...]. Between 1919 and 1932, Germany paid less than 21 billion marks in reparations.

And why does it stop in 1932, because the year after the Nazis came into power and rejected to pay. I wonder when the "thrive during a decade of military and industrial development" was, since Germany was prohibited to have a thriving military by said Treaty. I can only presume after the Nazis came into power. Which is literally what Keynes was warning about:

> "Men will not always die quietly," Keynes warned in "The Economic Consequences of the Peace," and "in their distress may overturn the remnants of organization, and submerge civilization itself."

See also: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/07/opinion/keynes-economic-c...

> If Keynes’s specific economic predictions couldn’t anticipate what in fact happened between the wars, then what’s left of The Economic Consequences of the Peace?

Sure, let's talk about the hands...