4) The world collectively shrugs and says "meh".

This is alluded to in your statement "While it's potential minimum is 0 [...]", but isn't listed explicitly. (Miss)applying the Y-Combinator whiteboard, bitcoin is in the initial peak of excitement, it is yet to prove that it can traverse the trough of sorrow.

http://www.inc.com/ss/can-paul-graham-mass-produce-start?sli...