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I think the biggest issue for adoption is overlooked -- advertisers and monetization. Flash has been around for so long that the infrastructure has been built around it, and it's quite stable. As more companies learn how to harness HTML 5 for advertising purposes (with metrics, etc), we'll see more and more of it.

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Display advertising on the web has surely been around for longer than Flash?

Perhaps the style and metrics used in mobile ads needs some work, but I don't think HTML5 changes anything in any meaningful way.

"Display advertising on the web has surely been around for longer than Flash?"

True, but pretty much only as static displays. I do agree, though, HTML5 isn't a game changer, just another means to deliver moving content (only open, and not proprietary to one company)

Ah, I misunderstood. So you're talking about something like <canvas> animations or even <video> ads?

I could see how that could be a big deal for iPad users. But it doesn't seem like it changes the fundamentals of web advertising.

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