I'd say it's almost exactly how it is. In the natural world, the 'rules' don't change, we just continually discover more, and all the attendant nuances. In the SEO world, Google/Bing/etc really do just change the rules as to how stuff works, possibly because they get angry about abuses going on. There are a small handful of people who control how the online universe largely operates, just like gods.
There's no point in pretending to 'know' things about SEO, because unless you've worked at one of the big search companies, you can't really know what you're talking about. And in the few cases you do, there's no guarantee that the same will hold true tomorrow. In face, the more people 'know' something about SEO, the more likely that particular rule will change.
And no, I don't claim to be an SEO expert - I just tire of hearing the outlandish claims from 'experts' charging gobs of money from unsuspecting hopefuls.