The second statement is unfortunately true.

But be careful of taking the first one at face value. The outsider might be optimizing for being right. He might also be optimizing for looking good in his social circle, confirming some self-image in his own mind, establishing himself as a prudent person who holds sensible beliefs, or establishing himself as a daring person who holds antiestablishment beliefs. The process that brought him to your attention, might also have selected him for noteworthiness by all sorts of criteria, only one of which is being right; that counts as an optimization process in and of itself.

Which doesn't mean the outsider isn't right. Maybe he is. But be careful of just assuming it.