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Comment by thepangolino | Hacker News Reader

> false claims about hospital admissions being at normal levels.

"Normal level" is all relative. If you look up the press, "on the brink of the apocalypse" seems to be the normal level for at least the last couple of years in the UK.

2012: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/dec/02/hospitals-fu...

2013: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/nov/24/nhs-hospital...

2014: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/27/nhs-winter-c...

2015: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/mar/27/nhs-hospital...

2016: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/dec/16/hospitals-in...

2017: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/dec/07/nhs-bosses-s...

2018: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/mar/07/patients-tur...

2019: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/25/hospital-be...

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Except for the articles which say that beds have been cut, the rest is manifestly untrue.

While the press tend to catastrophise, this is the first year we've seen doctors and nurses from multiple countries spontaneously going on social media to plead with people to take the virus seriously.

It's also the first year recent-history where some countries - including developed countries like Portugal - have had to send patients abroad, or ask for other kinds of medical help from other countries.

So it is absolutely a false claim to suggest that hospital admissions are at normal levels. They aren't.

It's also the first year where excess death totals have been far above any previous statistical variation.

https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports/mortality-surve...

What's interesting so far this year is that deaths with covid on the death certificate in january (say w/e 22 jan - 9,000) is below the 4,655 excess deaths.

Back in April it was the other way round. I wonder how many non-covid deaths lockdown is saving (because things like the normal winter flu aren't spreading)

Saving is an interesting viewpoint given

1. Excess deaths are high after lockdown measures

2. These deaths are no longer explained by covid 19 death counts

I know tons of people who have relapsed, regressed, and are just generally unwell at this point. .3% of my Facebook friends have made a suicide attempt since lockdowns began.

The longer this goes on, the more dramatic these incidents are going to become.

according to Tyler Black (1) who compiled all official numbers he could find there is no evidence of an increase in suicides for the US

https://twitter.com/tylerblack32/status/1357765466601775106

1) MD, Suicidologist, emergency psychiatrist and pharmacologist

Similar in the UK, although with a caveat that in the UK at least it can take a long time to register suicdes. Even in normal times only 50% of suicides are registered in the year they happen, and with covid there's a backlog. I suspect we won't know the real level of suicide in 2020 until 2022.

That said, the data that is available doesn't point to an increase outside of the historical increase (suicides in the UK have been increasing for a long time)

The data that's been released in the UK was using a newer rapid method, looking at death before coroners issue a conclusion. NCISH are calling this real time monitoring data. Some local areas sometimes call this data "suspected self inflicted deaths".

Suicides in the UK have not been increasing for a long time. They increased this year for the first time since 2007. There are a few reasons for this, but part of it is a change in the standard of proof used by coroner's after the Maughan case. Coroner's used to have to use "beyond all reasonable doubt", and now have to use "balance of probabilities" for a conclusion of suicide.

Sorry but "doctors going on social media" is absolutely no proof for anything. I have also seen several doctors on social media say that there is less activity at hospitals than usual.

Seriously, just provide the numbers about hospital use. No social media nonsense.

Your data about "excess deaths" is only for the last five years, by the way, not "any previous year".

Okay, but you’re participating in amplification of disinformation right now. It’s the “just asking questions” sort or approach that doesn’t actually say anything specific, but aims to create a general fog of doubt and confusion.

If there is a specific point you want to make, then do so. It might be valid. Back that point up with details or an explanation that shows why you think it is the case, and expect to provide more information if your view is a challenging or unlikely one.

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