Forgive me for answering a question with another question, but may I ask if you believe in the NSA's Tailored Access Operations unit based on the leaks we got? https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2014/05/photos-of-an-nsa...

I do, and based on that it feels perfectly reasonable to believe that every other superpower probably has an equivalent. It also feels perfectly reasonable that server BMCs would be a common target for all such units considering the ludicrous access they provide, e.g. remote BIOS flashing, continuous screen recording, etc.

"No evidence" is maybe a little harsh? They have government sources testifying, they have people working for semiconductor manufacturers testifying on getting briefings from FBI. They have court documents on similar incidents with Lenovo? I get that this story very much is about who you chose to believe, but to say "no evidence" makes me think you didn't bother to read the article.

When it comes to estimating unverifiable classified truths, your personal estimates are a exercise in balancing probabilities.

So based on motive, means, and some circumstantial evidence, we can estimate that this is likely happening. Enough truth, at least, to guide purchasing choices away from SuperMicro.