Hacker News Reader

Comment by omginternets | Hacker News Reader

There's not much substance to this article. The author declares a few opinions, but doesn't take us through his reasoning (let alone evidence).

I'm even tempted to call this FUD, but that usually implies some sort of agenda. I don't even see that, here.

View on HN

The fact that such an empty article made it to the front page suggests to me that this is a topic HN commenters desperately want to discuss.

The problem is that we just keep saying the same things without gaining any new insight. Threads like this become clogged with armchair economists looking to cram elementary Austrian/Keynesian/MMT down our throats and we all walk away deeper in the hole of misunderstanding.

Do rates have to stay low forever? Is a 'beautiful deleveraging' possible? Will the dollar tank in favor of BTC/Gold/RMB or some future currency or basket of currencies? Will we see real inflation or will the dollar's reserve status consume all of the extra money supply? Will it be stagflation? Will the fed run out of policy tools to control the economy? Has the economy been running on fumes for years, propped up by easy money since '08? Will asset prices become normalized or return to earth? Will millenial demographics save us in 2023? Etc., etc., etc...

If any of us had convincing answers to any of these questions, we'd be rich. I don't think anyone really knows what will happen, but we're all convinced something big is going to happen.

This is Fred Wilsons blog, he is a very accomplished VC, founder of Union Square Ventures. He is basically the biggest tech investor in NYC. His blog reaches the front page every time he posts because his is notable

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not even for Fred Wilson.

This one is anemic, and upvoting "because Fred Wilson" is a poor reason to upvote an article.

> This one is anemic

Would you care to share your analysis with us?

He doesn't have to. Point us to a single insight in the article. We'll wait.

I don’t have to. The article is quite simple.

If you think it’s bullshit, feel free to explain why.

You misunderstand. We don't see bullshit, we see a vacuum.

If we are mistaken, please point to something of substance. We unfortunately cannot prove a negative.

It seems like you are saying you can’t read.

Are you not able to make sense of what the article says? I don’t think copying and pasting it here will help that.

Sure. For sake of argument, let's assume I can't make sense of the article. So, what does it say? Outside of "look, graphs", "What will the future bring", and "I don't have answers"?

It's not asking any extraordinary questions not on anybody's radar. It's not providing any answers, or even insights. It's devoid of useful content. There is nothing to actually critique.

Maybe there is an underlying message, but I certainly can't see it. (And, let's be honest, if not for its author, it never would've been mentioned on HN)

> Maybe there is an underlying message, but I certainly can't see it.

Understand.

When you said “This one is anemic”, it seemed like you were able to understand the article and were critical of it.

I'm so glad you took debate club. Meanwhile, what is the message? Because anemic articles excel in not having one...

I am saying that there's no insight in the content. It is unsubstantiated opinion.

> I am saying that there's no insight in the content. It is unsubstantiated opinion.

Insight, and unsubstantiated opinion are not mutually exclusive.

Also, by ‘insight’, do you mean things you personally hadn’t already thought of?

I think it’s more who the writer is.

HN desperately wants to discuss economics but will not take a single second to read up about macro beyond some crank Austrian stuff. It's an entire field of study! There are people who devote their entire lives to investigating just one corner of it! These threads are always packed with software engineers who are absolutely full of it and want to talk confidently about a subject they have absolutely no background in.

I studied economics and I cannot claim to understand what is currently going on or how it will end. The fact that there are so many conflicting opinions (from experts, not just HN posters) tells me that I’m not the only one. We are in uncharted waters AND sailing in the dark. When the end comes it’ll be obvious in hindsight, but it’s currently anything but.

That is the correct answer :)

I'm a computer programmer that has started reading Schumpeter's "History of economic analysis", but I think not even a guy like Schumpeter could have explained why at some point in 2019 more than $17 trillion were returning negative rates (and I don't think that sum has decreased by all that much).

It's a sign of economic anxiety among readers. And folks here are generally doing well. And that's scary. If people in the top 10-15% don't feel economically secure, I think it speaks to greater issues afloat.

He basically said, "Everything that has a beginning has an end." But with way too many words.

I wouldn't call it FUD, but I would call it highly manipulative. There was a huge round of VC investments so far in 2021 and some people are now getting fidgety about interest rates. VCs make money by flipping deals. The author has HUGE financial incentive for people to continue to be open to risk. The only reason he cites the 1-year is because the graph supports his point and he has a lot to gain from coaxing readers who don't know about other things like the yield curve or credit spreads or ....

It's Fred Wilson, you've been here long enough to see plenty of his articles. It's the point of view of a SV VC. Literally A...VC.

Technically, he's a NYC VC.

The old-fashioned kind.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com