Commenting on the aspect of "Governments will tighten money supply when things get better". It seems, the governments around the world are also raising debt at a levels never seen before. There are pros and cons for this - Pros being if the growth rate is higher than the interest rate, by all means, get debt. The con is that the _rate_ of debt accumulation will make it worse for the future payouts, even of growth is higher.

An article that I found useful is:

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/02/13/s...

Archived: https://archive.is/wip/0q0fz