Paul Kedrosky: Shut Up About the Age Thing

It is my observation that many of the young people who boast about age are gleefully unaware of the horrible failure rate of young, (under 30), entrepreneurs. Many point out the brilliant successes, without mentioning the 100 other young entrepreneurs that failed in the same space. The numbers bare out the indisputable fact that older entrepreneurs will fail less often than younger entrepreneurs. In fact the statistical variance in the success rate is so large that wise VCs and angels actually use age in their models.

For instance, if we are advising angels who are want to dabble, but are at heart risk averse, we do swing them over to that 38 year old guy with the new molecular imaging startup. On the other hand when we are advising VCs and angels that are more than just old ladies' investment clubs, we do steer them to the kids. This should not come as a surprise to people.

It would be a mistake for young people to think that they are better suited to creating successful startups. They are not. They are better suited to creating MORE startups, of a decidedly lower quality. The older entrepreneur in my illustration will show better judgment at every step of the game when compared to a younger entrepreneur.

That includes the first step . . . choosing to create a molecular imaging startup instead of a web 2.0 startup that anyone can copy.

The fact that you can't control something doesn't mean you shouldn't think about it. Basketball players can't control their height, but it affects the techniques they can use.

There are two things to consider. Young people mind is still malleable and they are generaly free or duties and in a healthy condition. They can thus easily adapt, reconsider classic models and be totally commited to the startup with ne reasons to fear failure.

Older people tend to have a less malleable mind. They are slower to change direction and take decisions, but when they do, it is wiser and better thought than young people. They have to find compromise between the various external duties they have and can take less risk. They have less energy resources and endurance than young people.

From this perspective, it is clear that young people are more sexy for VC, because they are looking for innovative mercenaries ready to give their life and health for their company.

But not beeing sexy to a VC doesn't mean the project is rotten. The success depends on the project and the context. Beside there are many older people out there with a 20 year old innovative mercenary spirit and there are many young people out there with a 30 old guy's maturity.

So claiming there is a kind of use-by day for entrepreneurs doesn't indeed make sense.

Interesting juxtaposition of this post (at #4 on news.yc currently) versus the In Silicon Valley, the Crash Seems Like Just Yesterday post (at #3 on news.yc currently), because of this quote from the crash article:

"A lot of froth, especially if you mix in a lot of inexperienced people, that's a bad thing."

I've been thinking about this a lot lately too.

Chances are, the older you get, the average person will have lived through more "failures" than huge mega-successes. This influences how they perceive the world and their expected outcome.

Some 20 year-old who has never had to work for a BigCo or failed startup has not had that experience yet. (Not sure if this is a plus or minus, probably a plus.)

Sometimes, just sometimes, a "crotchety old-timer" who might still only be in his late twenties, can bring something to the game that a 20 y/o might not have at that age.