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Comment by baybal2 | Hacker News Reader

If Ukraine disappears tomorrow, Western Europe will follow, and with that the only US platz d'arme in Asia against Russia, and the only remaining US nuclear allies.

Following this, don't think you will be able to leisurely spend the remaining of your life. Everybody down to your granny will be forcefully drafted, and mobilised.

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As recently as 1989, not only Ukraine, but all of Eastern Europe was aligned with Russia/USSR. Strangely, Western Europe was not drafting grandmothers at that time.

I don't see any reason to think that Putin wants to do more than control his near abroad. He doesn't have an expansionist ideology. He likes being rich and controlling his periphery and sticking a thumb in the eye of the West, but if he e.g. invaded and conquered Paris, where would he exile his oligarchs when he needs them to take a time out for a while? He needs the West as a pressure valve. As long as he can still have you murdered at your hotel in DC (Mikhail Lesin), he can keep you in line without needing to have ships in the Potomac.

And as recently as 1989, NATO had few tank armies on the border with USSR, and thousands of constantly armed nukes pointed at the enemy.

Not anymore?

>If Ukraine disappears tomorrow, Western Europe will follow

Ah yes, the dreaded invasion of Western Europe by Russia, with their 90% outdated tanks and planes that could be held back by a single major European army. A terrifying prospects that haunts every european at night.

> Ah yes, the dreaded invasion of Western Europe by Russia, with their 90% outdated tanks and planes that could be held back by a single major European army.

Tanks - Russia: 10000+

Tanks - Germany: 300 + 1200 US army tanks

Firstly, it's quite disingenious to take Germany as the example when they have never had a large army in the past 50 years and have not been a military power. Let's compare what is comparable: Russia and France use about the same percentage of their budget for military purposes: 9% for France, 11% for Russia.

Tanks - Russia

- T72 - 2000 tanks, 7000 in reserve

- T90 - 350 active, 200 reserve

- T14 Armata (i.e., top of the line) - 100 planned, 20+ active.

Tanks - France

  - Leclerc (top of the line) - 222 active, 200 upgraded to XLR-Standard

  - AMX10/20 - 300

Planes - Russia

  - SU57 - 1.

  - SU35S (refurbished Su27 from 2003) - 97

  - SU34 (from 1990) - 120

  - Mig35 - 4.

  - Planes from before 1980 - 500

Planes - France

  - Rafale B/C/M - 150

  - Mirage 2000 - 120

So, even if Russia intends to throw tanks from 1970 at Europe to have them be utterly crushed by aviation, a single country from Europe stands more or less toe to toe with it.

Germany has the biggest force on its territory given allied forces (US army) on its soil.

Tanks are a completely outdated military technology. Shoulder launched anti-tank missiles, anti-tank aircraft and now drones can all render large quantities of tanks scrap metal, especially the majority of old Russian tanks with WW2 era armor. There's a reason western countries have stopped investing in tanks and spend most of their military R&D budgets on airplanes and drones these days, air-superiority wins the day in modern conventional warfare.

Why the derision? Thousands died when Russia seized Crimea and kicked off skirmishes in Donbass.

It's denial. People are ready to deny the reality if doing so lets them justify their inaction.

Russia does not want and cannot invade (Western) Europe, and there is the slight issue of nuclear arsenals. I think the derision comes from that...

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