Show HN: Futuure – hash-certified public prediction store
futuu.re
futuu.re
1. User makes a public declaration to always make a prediction using some platform. Like they release a tweet saying all future predictions will happen on futuu.re (or on a Blockchain)
2. They only release the sha hashes of their prediction to futuu.re, along with a date for that prediction, and users keep the true prediction with themselves. At any time before deadline they must reveal the content to the world and tell futuu.re about it. Futuu.re verifies that the sha matches the prediction and keeps an easy record. All predictions must start with a preamble.
3. futuu.re maintains three counters for a use, one showing the number of predictions made till that time, second showing predictions that should be revealed till that time, third showing the number of predictions that have been revealed . This establishes the long time accuracy of the user.
This way when someone reveals their pok then the public will know whether they tried to fool people because the users trust ratio will go down if they make a lot of predictions without revealing them. This is also more secure since the actual content is never stored on the server.
The only thing that needs to be done is to use a content formatter/validator at the time of hash creation for stylstic reasons and to make it convenient for public to verify the accuracy of the user.
To build trust you'd need to have a high count of revealed predictions in any given account.
That said people can try to game the system by uploading a very large number of predictions programmatically, so I think a rate throttling will have to be enforced. Any account can't make more than one prediction a day or something like that.
Also note that the issue you raised will also affect OP's implementation.
edit: and it's also your revenue.
EDIT: That is exactly how it works. They write " There is no way to edit or delete a pok after you save it".
Additionally, the creation screen proclaims:
> There is no way to edit or delete a pok after you save it
Feature request: User groups and pok access levels. Restrict pok access down to a given set of users. I imagine that a large share of the pok volume does not (and should not) concern the wider public. For example, I could have a group with my buddies, and register a pok wrt my best friend breaking up with their partner.
This group concept could be exploited in the form of a plugin that can be hooked on Slack rooms or WhatsApp groups. Every time a pok is unsealed the Futuure bot could notify the room, letting others congratulate you upon a successful prediction (or the inverse).
Sadly, a list of hashes isn't that interesting. So it's not that interesting to read current list.
The thing though that would make this worthwhile would be if it were decentralized, because you want universal verification and independence of some third-party breaking if its like a contract. While they could act as a law office or official records office that keeps the contract, deed, or certificate on-file, I’d not keep the only copy of something important with a startup that could go out of business and has no requirement to keep my data or secure its future, so I’d hope there’s something for that.
printf "Hello World" | sha256sumThere are lots of ways to do it. One of them would be for Fuuture to publish the hash to literally anywhere.
Public + cryptographically verifiable + distributed + append-only still does not equal blockchain, as long as we're defining blockchain as something that was not invented before 2009.
The extra governance layer that makes it a blockchain is also not trivial.
It wasn't based on a public, distributed block chain, but it was a kind of a block chain (without PoW, PoS etc. - which you don't need if it's run by a single actor). The way they built trust was that they did publish their hash (tip of the block chain) I think in the (printed) Financial Times periodically. That made it impossible even for them to forge the chain.
Adding in the 'contracts' nature of it to commit to a wager on the prediction.
Encryption adds one layer of obfuscation for a bad actor that might steal the database but does not get their hands on the key. Plus access to the key can be managed differently than access to the database.
Either way, it comes down to sensitivity of the predictions made and how users would react should they be exposed before their due dates.
So something like, I encrypt message with a certain public key. The private key is guaranteed to only become available on 1st of January 2030.
I wonder if you could perhaps do a kind of Shamir secret sharing scheme where as long as most of the participants are honest, they all agree to piece together their shares of the secret at the specified time.
Have you figured out how to promote it (that's what stopped me from implementing the thing)?
It seems that it's used on Twitter to prove that you were right about something, and so people should trust your foresight ability. E.g., this tweet here: [1]
How does keeping it secret change things? If it's about something that is secret that you know about, well then having foreknowledge is not that surprising. Is it so other people can't steal your prediction and also be right, so you're not as special?
Indeed, as far as I can tell, that tweet was a prediction about global consequences of the Coronavirus. How does keeping that secret help anyone at all, besides saying "ha ha, I was secretly right all along!"
I guess I can also think of some very specialized cases, like getting a hash of a patent you're submitting to prove invention date. But I think I'm being dumb not coming up with more obvious reasons that must make this desirable to lots of people..
Imma going to go and make a whole bunch of predictions, wait a year, and then only reveal the ones that actually came true.
Now I'm a genius, right?
This is basically similar to an old common scam, where you would mail 100 people, and 50 would say 'buy this stock it's awesome', and another 50 would say 'sell this stock, it stinks', and to 50 of those people, you're going to look like a genius, and to the others, you're just another scrub.
Now I could go and make several predictions for the top 100 stocks, planning for every possible move, and then as they come true, start to reveal those predictions and BAM, I'm a fucking genius, give me all your money, and I'll invest it for you.
Though that domain name still has some interesting potential!