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Comment by dnautics | Hacker News Reader

you mean like how TSMC is building a fab in arizona and samsung in texas?

But TSMC's Arizona plant will make 5nm chips in 2023, by which time 5nm wont be the leading-edge node - 3nm will be. It's nice to see some geodiversity however.

In any case, TSMC is dependent on ASML, which has a monopoly on leading-edge EUV tech.

There is a decent amount of competition at older nodes, like > 40nm. So we'll still be able to make some chips if TSMC completely goes out of business, but obviously it wont scale to the demand and will seriously hamper business, science, and government.

I'm comparing against GP's suggestion "to build a fab". Point is, SMC and TSMC fabs will be online faster than a direct fab investment.

> science

I believe science has access to more compute than it needs. I could be wrong now, but last I checked, a few years ago, the huge computational clusters (both public and private, e.g. @ pharma companies) were under-utilized, especially on legacy-hardware-that-is-still-pretty-damn-good, and scrambling to find ways to engage with outside clients to fill out capacity.

You make it sound like anyone with the will can just take ASML product and create a leading fab. If that was the case Intel wouldn't be in the mess it is in.

I'm not saying ASML -> cutting-edge capacity, but the opposite. Having cutting-edge capacity probably means you're dependent on ASML.

There will still be plenty of demand for 5nm chips in 2023. There will still be plenty of demand for 5nm chips in 2030 for that matter. Not everything uses the latest process node.

Yes, absolutely. Still, the point is that the factory will be useful, but not a panacea to the US's lack of cutting-edge chip-making prowess.

I think they have a Chinese move against Taiwan more on the mind than an earthquake or other natural disaster.

*and South Korea. Maybe not an explicit attack, but if there is supply chain disruption due to tensions between china and japan not having contested sealanes (getting out of SK could be at risk) in your chip pipeline is probably a good thing.

I would imagine that some DoD plan states that all those fabs in Taiwan get blown up upon invasion.

That would do it.

Thinking about it, I would expect some kidnap... immigration to the US of some personnel would probably happen.

Makes you wonder if those buildings would be rigged already. Conspiracy level stuff, for sure but it is such a strategic asset. In WWII bridges that were still in daily use in Europe were already mined well before the territory changed control with the leavers trying to deny the new arrivals the use of the bridges.

In the modern era, it probably is just gathering precise positioning for a missile launch. I expect some computer wiping will be in the cards too. That might be the modern version of rigging the buildings already.

Given what a strategic asset they are, I would expect its not really "conspiracy level stuff" on various plans. After all, the US had attack plans for the UK between the world wars.

I thought I remember watching a video about TSMC and the buildings are all rigged to blow should China invade.

Some military planners thinks the Chinese will not invade but will enforce a maritime blockade around the island to force the issue.

Ships would be inspected and food and medicine will be allowed through but all trade goods will be blocked.

But that is all depended on the US and it's allies having a stomach for a naval confrontation or that the Chinese mainland umbrella of long range missiles and air defense can be an effective deterrent against that.

Does the chinese navy have experience with maritime blockades? Besides, for chips, worst case scenario is load those chips onto ruslans and offboard them in guam or okinawa. A minor marginal expense. Will china shoot down taiwanese planes?

It depends on whether supplies willing to bet which container ship or plane would be random shot down by PLAAF?

No idea but it would be preferable optics wise to stage as an internal Chinese policing action against a rebellious province rather than a full on military invasion of another country and all that would entail.

The first US-flagged vessel stopped and searched would trigger WW3. I think there's little question about popular sentiment in the US. Backing down would be political suicide for any president.

Aren't most container vessels like the one stuck in the Suez flagged under the flag of Panama ???.

I wouldn’t be surprised if TSM has self-destruct features built into their operations as a deterrent, or at least a plan to let the USAF bomb the hell out of the foundries if China invaded. The former might be a bit too risky :)

Which still means there's a crippling semiconductor shortage. With how long fabs take to make it could last for years.

There's a rumor that they have rooms with explosives to scuttle the fabs.

As far as I know Samsung in Texas is not yet a done deal. They're requesting complete tax abatement for twenty years in addition to the inducements offered by local governments and I believe they're waiting to see if they can pull it off. Their current facilities in Austin have remained closed since the big snow storm.

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