The algorithms that make Instacart roll
spectrum.ieee.org
spectrum.ieee.org
Anyway, I'm excited to see what the next ten years will bring here.
Could you expand on this? It's not clear from the outside how this would be such a central part of the industry.
My guess is this person meant relationships with the farmers and producers being critical. At least this is true for us.
If you want the freshest produce and other local items, then you need to know the farmers and other vendors in your area.
If you want to go mass market instead, then there are only a few wholesalers to choose from.
It's not easy for a small to mid-sized brand to try to get their product into stores when each physical brick and mortar store is a pitch in and of itself. So what ends up happening is brands partner with Agencies who specialize in building relationships with each of the store managers in a region and advocating for all of the brands in their portfolio.
I realize this is a step removed from Instacart and delivery services, but the whole industry tends to operate in a similar interpersonal/relationship-based way.
If they were gathering tons of video, maybe. Or vast numbers of high-precision sensors generating data continuously. But I didn't see anything like that.
It's just hard for any human activity to generate that much data. Is "petabytes" just some kind of hype, or is there something I'm missing?
Source: Worked in big datasets at Bing for a couple years.
> DoorDash, Shipt, and Uber Eats in the United States, and Buymie, Deliveroo, and Grofers, based elsewhere
They all lose money.
So how do we know any of this is actually working?
Those promos for restaurants, couriers and consumers don’t pay for themselves.
Also, the last mile is really, really expensive to service, as every startup in this space finds out sooner rather than later.
The moment a competitor starts offering self-driving option for the general public, there won't be any reason to use Uber Car.
A single 10 mile trip back and forth to downtown will easily cost you 100$+ without tips and 8 times out of 10 it'll be in a filthy and smelly car with a driver who doesn't care about the speed limit or the volume or genre of music he's playing in the car.
To have one person shopping in store and then another one to deliver to your door is low productivity and almost guaranteed to cost more than most people are willing to pay for the service, unless this is in a developing country like India and China where you have both people with Western purchasing power and people that can be paid peanuts.
Same for services like Deliveroo, a driver cannot make that many deliveries per hour in most locations. It has historically worked for things like pizzas because pizzas are very simple, quick, and cheap so you can have someone on minimum wage do deliveries and still be in the black but as soon as you move to things with more overhead and lower margins you hit the wall.
Delivery is indeed the difficulty and the solution depends on the coming of age of self-driving cars (level 5). My experience of ordering online from supermarkets is that a guy drives a van around and takes your order to your front door. In suburban areas (i.e. houses not flats) we can imagine self-driving vans stopping in front of your houses and letting you collect your order like a vending machine. This is not possible now because there are no self-driving cars but the instant they become commercially available I bet this will quickly become the norm.
Automated warehouses plus self-driving cars enable a fully automated process from order to delivery. I'm sure we'll get there.
Drones are simpler to fly autonomously but I don't think they are practical for delivering 10s of kilos of stuff to residential areas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x05SFt9BN0w
As long as the max. Delivery matches the biggest package possible, since drones have a way cheaper cost of ownership + delivery + quicker.
There's also a fun integration problem: food manufacturers essentially lease shelf space and then the manufacturer handles all the inventory/restocking, and the store itself doesn't know or care what's there. So now you have to contact a bunch of third parties to learn what's in the store.
every vendor is assigned some shelf space and has some restocking day (like every morning for bread) when the shelves are expected to be 100% full. then they have purchases data from point of sale terminals/online orders.
the problem becomes A minus B
1)Customer picks up product, other falls on the ground and becomes damaged, product -x Equation: a-b-x where you don't know how much product is damaged 2)Product arrives in a bad batch, x number is affected, and requires manual adjustment, this doesn't happen, or happens incorrectly Equation: a-b-x where you don't know how much product is damaged 3)Customer picks up X amount, however x-y was registered as a sale Equation: a-b-y where you don't know how much product is unaccounted for 4)Delivery is expected on x day, however due to traffic/sickness/equipment failure delivery is delayed Equation: a-0, stock isn't available as it didn't arrive, however the assumption was that product arrived (trivial to fix this one, but I'm laying out scenarios).
You now have four scenarios that are guaranteed to happen around %10 of the time. Issues can be expanded to the manufacturer/border/trade agreements/ thousands of other potential scenarios that disrupt sourcing.
In terms of taking stock, it's not a trivial task to take accurate inventory on a regular basis. It's a manual problem that can only be done in a reliable fashion in most cases through estimation (therefore inaccurate).
The reason why they provide availability ratings is that it provides a clearer picture of what a customer can purchase, and in the event it has a low rating, prompt for potential replacements. It's not binary, it's a case of 'probably' or 'probably not'.
I've seen stock that should have lasted a week disappear in a day, stock mis-allocated(multiple times for the same item from multiple vendors in the same day), large volumes sold incorrectly resulting in stock adjustments, wastage from random occurrences, etc.
I hope this provides a level of insight into the complexities of
Inventory management is something that's easy in theory, and very very hard in practice.
I imagine you could get decent improvements in prediction accuracy using a more sophisticated ML model.
That said even the simple sale velocity model you describe has learnable parameters (e.g. historical data window length). This would probably be best done using an ML rather than ad hoc approach. An ML approach might be as simple as a logistic model indicating whether an item will be in stock or out of stock based on time of day + stock levels at the start of the day.
The interaction with the business I am paying is valuable to me. I can - and do - give direct feedback about the service, which improves it.
And if I forgot something, I can also run into the store and grab it, COVID circumstances permitting.
The _same guy_ puts groceries in my car every time. A guy with a job that has health insurance. That matters.
And lastly yes, it helps, that I feel like the ones with the job are less exploited than the IC shoppers....
A shortsighted decision on their part. Because right after they took that stupid decision I stopped using their services forever and have told everyone I know to do the same.
Plus, sometimes you want to buy one thing and add extra stuff to your cart in order to meet the minimum order value, and they do not have the one thing you were interested in on stock and you end up wasting your time.
Amazon is much better at estimating stock and much more reliable. Amazon customer support is better and prioritizes long term relationships with customers over short term revenue.
I've also often wished for a "cancel the entire order if you don't have this item" button. Especially when shopping for a specific recipe where if one ingredient is missing, the rest are useless.
Take the perspective of a 3 star chef. You've got two major strategies to work with 1. Control and 2. Flexibility.
The control strategy means you have deep trust in reliable suppliers. You've spent years finding the people who can get you what you need when you need it. You build your menu in consultation with your suppliers and then you check, check, and recheck every single order to make sure the standard doesn't slip. It's incredibly hard.
The flexible strategy means that you adapt your menu daily or nearly daily to the supply you select yourself. Your talent is taking what is available, finding the best, and creating surprise and delight in a clientele who like that kind of thing. This is also incredibly hard.
Basically nowhere in the high-quality-fresh-food world can you 100% rely on supply. And that's the challenge that Instacart faces. It doesn't have any strong relationships with suppliers (it's all third party or arms-reach) and it has almost no ability to be flexible because the orders are set by people who are hard to reach and haven't explained their needs.
There's some light in this tunnel. For example plantoeat.com (recipe and meal planning service) now integrates with instacart, but it doesn't work well at all. Even when it does populate the cart shoppers don't know the recipe associated with what they are buying and aren't incentivized to care.
Throwing layers of ML on top of unpredictable systems isn't a terrible idea, but it's a bandaid. The problems as I've described above are 1. Lack of control and 2. An inability to be flexible because you don't understand the needs you're fulfilling.
The best answer to this is vertical integration. Goodeggs.com is one vertically integrated grocery delivery service. You could also think of it as a net-first grocery store, ghost grocer, whatever. When I buy from them I'm much more likely to get what I ask for. And in the cases where I am ordering a meal kit and they are out of some component, they know what can and cannot be substituted to fulfill the requirements of the recipe.
I don't think Instacart is going anywhere, it does what it does pretty well and I think it will keep getting better. But Amazon was right to buy Whole Foods and until Instacart owns the entirety of the production and distribution chain they won't get to the kind of experience people have been used to when they plan a meal, visit a store, and select for themselves.
It hit me real hard thinking that the app user who made the Instacart order never knew why their order was late and may have even gotten upset and asked for a refund, not having the slightest idea about the tragedy that happened behind the scenes, or the risk to their own life had they gone shopping themselves that day instead of ordering online.
"The mother of two was at the supermarket filling an Instacart order, something she did in retirement to help others, he told the newspaper."
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/03/23/boulde...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%27No_Way_To_Prevent_This,%2...
Rant over, sorry, I get emotional when I think about this having been mugged at gun point with a pistol that was undoubtedly stolen from a car glove compartment or something during a routine car break in (assumptions, but you know what I mean). I survived the encounter because I didn't try to fumble in my bag for some gun I barely know how to use (in fact the first thing they did was grab my bag and frisk every inch of me). It was a crew, they were all business, and they got me. I walked away with my house keys and my empty wallet (note, they did NOT steal my ID).
So yeah, that sort of thing has happened to me and I still, somehow, don't have fantasies about shooting a bunch of teenagers. Call me crazy.
Before moving to Germany I owned some guns for sport: my friends and I would go into the mountains to designated shooting areas and do target practice. If the hoops to get a gun were increased 10 fold it wouldn’t effect me at all.
I get that for big cities with large police presence, but the US is very wide and has countless suburbs and small towns with very little law enforcement present. Please look up YouTube, you'll find many single moms and small families whose lives were saved because of guns, where it took law enforcement forever to reach them.
I don't think seeing a 'shrink' would make much difference except for those with very obvious conditions than the gun shop would refuse selling to them anyway. Most psychiatrists are nothing like the movies portray them to be, and they can't deduce everything about you from a couple hours of talking unless you're in a real dire state of mind. Hell, most of the good ones even refuse to take new patients or have 6 months long waiting list, and only the new inexperienced ones are easy to get hold of. Source: Tried to find a psychiatrist myself couple years ago for depression.
I imagine this line is annoying people. That you aren't bothered isn't the issue if others are. That you don't see the issue with a delay, or a background check, says more about your one-size-fits-all view than the complexity/simplicity of the problem. Personally I never have menstrual issues so I don't understand what all the fuss is about.
I come from country people, where even today going to the city is an event. And it's almost a holiday to go to "the big city". So a purchase you might be able to go to walk to the store to start a waiting period for might be between two months-apart trips for my family and much more inconvenient.
You also sound like you live in the city so your needs for protection are a lot different than in the country. In the city a pistol with frangible ammo, or a shotgun at home, are the max you'd need. In the country my driveway was 1.5km so different solutions are needed. What's a scary black gun in the city, when in the country, is a way to both keep coyotes from livestock at great distance and defend yourself from people if needed. Being 500m+ from a problem means you need more bullets (larger magazine) than being at 3' from the bad guy in the city, etc.
They're different worlds with different problems.
Look at Canada where the issue recently become polarized but not across party lines. Some nutcase in a surplus police car with a replica uniform drove around a small community gunning people down while the police holed up in the city for safety. He preyed on country people many kilometers from anyone else, with a rifle he'd smuggled up from the USA. Now the city people want to ban scary guns despite that a ban wouldn't have interfered with this shooter, but people from the country want to buy exactly the same gun he used because it's the best-in-class for home defense in those same scenarios.
A psychologist likely won’t be able to figure out things very quickly you’re right. Perhaps a discussion could be had to find a solution there to prevent more who would do harm with them from getting said guns.
I also said nothing about gun-shows. They perform the same background checks but have been very lax in the past. And then private gun sales on recently required further vetting at least in my home state of Oregon.
In the countryside do you really need an AR15 for self defense? Surely a shotgun at home makes more sense. And then to protect livestock a high powered rifle?
I don’t know what all the solutions might be but I do know that I am willing to pay in much longer lead times to get a gun if it means the next mass shooter is less likely to.
Np. I wasn't offended.
> I don’t know what all the solutions might be but I do know that I am willing to pay in much longer lead times to get a gun if it means the next mass shooter is less likely to.
I wonder how many shooters would have been stopped. I know one recently went shooting the day he received his guns but I don't know if he had enough guns before that. Had he been denied, what would he have done?
> In the countryside do you really need an AR15 for self defense? Surely a shotgun at home makes more sense. And then to protect livestock a high powered rifle?
Defense, against animals, likely no. Almost all animals except moose and bears are smart enough to avoid people. But defense of livestock and property, yes.
Are you saying an AR-15 isn't powerful enough for animals? It'd a moose at defensive range, but isn't what I'd want for hunting. But it'll kill any cougar-sized animal or smaller in a single hit, even at great range.
If bears are an issue you might want a 30-06, or an AR-10 to get the benefit of modern gear.
For defense against people it depends. I think the crazed shooter like in Canada is a pretty rare circumstance and the likely scenario is your wife defending the family against opportunistic robbers. In that case you want something quick and reliable, like a semi-auto battle rifle, with a high-capacity magazine. You aren't shooting at 600m, but perforating a car at 30m. But country defense is handled by the idea of weapons. Simply by being armed you and your neighbors probably won't need to use it, making the tactics of what is ideal somewhat irrelevant. Being that a shotgun is just an anti-human defensive weapon (it'll just anger a bear, very badly) it might not be worth the cost unless you use it for birding as well. The main benefit is the frangibility of the shot and lower wall-penetration which is more of a city concern.
The Canadian shooting happened and took so long to stop because even country people are largely disarmed there. You have magazine size limits, gun limits, have to store the gun locked and unloaded, and you can't intend to use the gun for defense!?
You seem like a reasonable mentally stable person with a respect for the power that a firearm brings. The issue is that with all tools be they an AR15 (before moving to the Germany I wanted to build an AR10 with a 7.62 caliber barrel — that would have been fun to go plinking with) or nuclear weapons or anything in between it’s how do we prevent the less sane, those that would do the innocent harm?
I don’t envy the politicians here. Their job is very hard. They have to weigh legitimate uses for self defense, recreation, hunting, etc., against those that would use them to kill many on a mass scale.
One thing that did cause alarm in your most recent post was this: “ You aren't shooting at 600m, but perforating a car at 30m.” Why is anyone shooting at a car? In the US some states if the suspect is fleeing you can’t pursue, but this is getting into the weeds of things. Suffice it to say that this is a thorny issue with no real easy fix or silver bullet (pun not intended). I do maintain that if the time to get a gun went from same day to a month I personally would be willing to pay that cost in waiting.
Feel free to continue this over email: Email (b64 encoded) YWxleGFuZGFyIGRvdCBuYXJheWFuIGF0IGhleSBkb3QgY29t