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Comment by ceilingcorner | Hacker News Reader

This would be an exceptionally impatient move. If China’s economic machine continues to grow + mainland culture becomes more appealing, I could see Taiwan wanting to reunite in a few decades.

It’s the same situation with Hong Kong. Had they initiated the changeover more slowly, there would be far less resistance. Instead, they ignited a movement that will probably never go away.

Xi’s downfall will be his inability to wait patiently.

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There is a pretty big generational divide among the Taiwanese with the older generation still identifying as Chinese while the younger generation is adamantly identifying as Taiwanese. It's hard to imagine how a peaceful reunification can happen as more time goes on. Culturally the divide is becoming starker over time.

What would reunification offer Taiwan? Hong Kong should put down any illusions that they would be able to maintain any meaningful level of autonomy.

China's economic growth has been fueled by demographics such as a young labor force. Due to the one child policy and low birth rates, they are facing a demographic collapse in the next few decades [1] as more people retire that are replaced by younger workers. If China is ever going to take over Taiwan, they would want to do so when they will be strongest which will be within the next ten years or so.

[1] https://www.dw.com/en/global-population-decline-will-hit-chi...

PolyMatter: "China's Reckoning (Part 1): Demographic Collapse" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTbILK0fxDY

This increasingly aggressive posturing makes me question China’s strength and its government’s political longevity. The difficult thing and the great thing about democracy is the stability that comes from a constant transition of power. China doesn’t have that tradition and Xi doesn’t have an “heir”. I suspect what’s really happening here is that Xi has a mandate to reunify China, which if forced, may ironically destroy China’s political ambitions.

They’ve had nukes for a while, unfortunately this could be viewed as the patient approach.

>Xi’s downfall will be his inability to wait patiently.

He is 67. His time is limited.

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