Hacker News Reader

I think you're right but I had to think about it and might not have noticed. How did you have that ready to go?

The probability is just pow(0.5, N) where N is the student population, assuming that the distribution has no skew, assuming independence between students, and assuming the students are drawn randomly from the general population. It's an exponentially decreasing function, so it becomes incredibly unlikely for large student bodies under these assumptions.

I disagree with this argument, but that's the basis of it.

I have a basic understanding of statistics and a basic understanding of logical fallacies, and I deal with this kind of sounds-good-if-you-don't-think-too-hard "insights" all the time.

> basic understanding of logical fallacies

Did you spot one here?

> I have a basic understanding of statistics

Perhaps an intermediate understanding would help. Entire schools tend to score higher or lower together, also wealth correlates to IQ and scholastic success and zip code. There are also other reasons an entire group would be biased higher or lower.

> I deal with this kind of sounds-good-if-you-don't-think-too-hard "insights" all the time

Uh-huh.

Could you help me understand what my fallacy was?

Reply on news.ycombinator.com