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Comment by reducesuffering | Hacker News Reader

Do you think if Turkey invaded a nearby country like Greece or Armenia, that France would do nothing?

Greece is a EU member state. The whole EU would react to such a thing - which is why Turkey would never do something that dumb.

Russia, ever the villain (and oft deserved) is also not dumb.

The most likely flashpoints for major conflict in my eyes are Pakistan - India, India - China, and China - Taiwan. It's a stretch to picture the French getting involved in any of those.

Major conflict in Europe just doesn't seem likely to me.

> Greece is a EU member state. The whole EU would react to such a thing - which is why Turkey would never do something that dumb.

That's exactly because EU members would react that Turkey doesn't do it and preparing for this scenario is exactly how you prevent it.

Unless you don't consider it major, I think you're missing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that just happened 6 months ago, with a huge ability to spiral out of control, cause a humanitarian crisis, which Turkey will definitely get involved in supporting Azerbaijan. There is now really bad blood between ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis, and Armenians still live in Nagorno-Karabakh, currently only safeguarded by Russian troops. That situation is still a tinderbox until an actual resolution is achieved and generations have passed.

I wouldn't describe that as major (I wasn't aware of it) but it looks like a mess.

Turkey was already involved in recent hostilities. Armenia alleged Turkish troops and air support were involved in the fighting in December while Azerbaijan claims Turkish involvement was limited to "military advisors".

Major conflict is a relative term, but I'd call Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine and Armenia major conflicts that happened in Europe within last ~20 years.

Those are not the kind of major WWII style conflicts discussed in the article.

I believe it did not escalate to a major conflict because UE carefully avoided it. Ukraine, in my profane view, was clearly a casus belli for UE, as this country, IIRC, was seriously considering joining the UE and UE members were not objecting (unlike for Turkey - some say this rejection was the cause of Erdogan).

For those confused by the acronym UE, it's the acronym for the European Union in some languages.

Sorry, habits. I have the same problem with AI/IA.

>> Major conflict is a relative term, but I'd call Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine and Armenia major conflicts that happened in Europe within last ~20 years.

> Those are not the kind of major WWII style conflicts discussed in the article.

WWII-style conflicts are an especially major type. They were so unusually major that the "world war" moniker was coined for them, because calling them a plain "war" just wouldn't do, and anything similarly unusually major would probably be cataclysmic at this point. I don't think that should be the threshold for calling something "major."

Neither would I, but that's the context for this discussion. Major conflict between major powers as described in the article.

One can bike-shed endlessly about definitions, but let's keep it to the context.

Either you're talking about a World War scale conflict or a regional conflict. "Major conflict in Europe" is by definition regional, because you've constrained it to Europe. If it doesn't involve Europe, it can't be a World War.

Just read the article man. I've no further interest in nitpicking over definitions. The article talks about preparing for war with other major powers, with WWII levels of casualties.

I'm not commenting on the article. I'm commenting on you saying that you can't imagine a major conflict in Europe.

> Either you're talking about a World War scale conflict or a regional conflict. "Major conflict in Europe" is by definition regional, because you've constrained it to Europe. If it doesn't involve Europe, it can't be a World War.

Looks like nit picking over definitions to me. I don't see a connection to me not imaging a war between major powers in Europe. Can you make the connection for me?

Don't get angry. You said that you can't imagine a major conflict in Europe. That's ignorant, because Europe has never been war-free for more than a few years at a time, so I pointed that out. If you meant to say that you can't imagine something akin to WW2 or something, then just say that. Maybe you were talking about Western Europe.

Let’s not forget how WW1 started. Had there been no WW1, thee would not have been a WW2.

Yep, true on both counts.

I am not sure Russia would not attempt to take the Baltics. They directly border Russia, has previously been a part of the Soviet Union, etc.

It would depend entirely on how Europe and the US reacts of course. If Europe stand united then Russia would stay out. If the US was willing to get involved then Russia would stay out.

Possibly France and Poland could stop Russia from taking the Baltics, but I don't think so.

I would have said Turkey wouldn't do anything, but with Erodogan I don't know any longer.

As for major conflicts in Europe, I have seen, stood on and crawled in the bunkers from the Atlantic wall (not hard, they are still very much a part of the landscape here in Denmark) I have seen the beeches in Normandy that are still marked by shell holes (or possibly granade holes). It is a nice reminder that major conflicts really did happen there.

I too used to think they would not happen in Europe ever again, because we could always count on the US as the backer of the peace and then nobody else would do anything. That got a shock on 9/11, and then the deal (which to be fair was never very good for the US) got a serious wack with the Trump administration.

Without guaranteed US backing, the peace in Europe seems a lot less solid. A united Europe (especially with the ability to buy weapons from the US, which I don't think is going to be an issue) is still very strong (and Russia isn't), but Europe is not united in much. And the public certainly isn't going to be happy with large scale war. We like our public safety nets, easy lives and long summers just as much as the next person.

Anyway that is a long armchair comment about the sentiment here in Europe.

I think we can get some idea of what Russia would risk from how the acted with the Ukraine.

Shadow warfare, proxy warfare, territory annexation.

It would be a serious escalation in strategy and risk to invade and annex a Baltic state. It seems unlikely to me, for what it's worth.

Turkey is expanding their influence on their neighborhood, but they won't seek out conflict with the EU, that's suicide.

Turkey and Russia could be a problematic situation though. They're similarly sized economies, although Russia has a serious military advantage.

> Turkey and Russia could be a problematic situation though. They're similarly sized economies, although Russia has a serious military advantage.

Russia's GDP is twice the size of Turkey. Russia is more similar to UK/France/Canada than Turkey.[0]

[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi...

Yes, but growing much more slowly than Turkey and with problematic demographics. This could be an issue in a couple decades.

I think a lot of NATO and EU states would do something, which is why it is almost certainly not going to happen.

Turkey and Greece are both members of NATO, so if they went to war, would the remaining NATO states have to sit it out? Or would one of the two be designated the aggressor, and the rest of NATO obliged to come to the aid of the other?

> if they went to war, would the remaining NATO states have to sit it out

An interesting question, which i think you would need some legal expert on the NATO treaties to explicate. But mercifully for 50 years or so they haven't ever done such a thing, and I don't see the military forces of either country wanting to. The bonkers Turkish leadership is another matter, but the Turkish (and Greek, to be honest) military have a tendency to remove inconvenient leaders.

NATO commits members to protect each other. If one member invaded another, it seems like a pretty clear violation of the treaty. In other words, grounds for being expelled from pact, so no more conflict about the remaining members coming to the invaded party’s aid.

There is a huge different between Greece and Armenia in that case. Greece is EU and western. Armenia, I don't think most people even know where it is (I certainly don't, no offense to anybody from Armenia).

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