They don't prosecute for a random one off. It's always people that have done it multiple times, so they establish a pattern.
As long as they're just investigating and not necessarily prosecuting every event that probably sounds fine (I'd be curious to know what the prosecution "funnel" looks like for flagged individuals in real life -- 100%? 1%?), but it's important not to let an intuitive sense for things that are definitely too unlikely to happen by chance to cloud our judgement and create something like another Sally Clark event[0].