Yes. The incidence is as of a week or two ago significantly above what one would expect. Additionally this effect can be shown in all countries where AZ was given to people below the age of 55 and no such cases happened to people given other vaccines. You can quickly google for the numbers and days if you want.
There were more than 50 deaths by COVID-19 in Norway last month. How many people were vaccinated with AZ and didn't die? How many of them won't die in the coming months? Could they have gotten a different vaccine? What if there wasn't enough of those other vaccines?
In this statement: "AZ could kill more people in the affected age ranges than the virus has done so far"
What are "the affected age ranges"? Affected by what? COVID-19? AZ vaccinations? Thrombosis due to AZ?
For people 35-39 it appears to be 0.01%-0.1%.
This is a key flaw in your logic. The choices aren't just "get the AZ vaccine" or "100% chance of catching COVID", so you need to multiply the IFR of COVID by the chance you'll catch it to have a fair comparison.
And even if the chance is only 1/4, I would estimate that the numbers would still be higher for covid than for AZ for people in their 30s and above.
That seems unlikely. For one thing, after more than a year, there have been 130 million cases out of a population of 8 billion, which is less than 2%. Do you expect this to dramatically spike in only a few months at this point? Also, remember that there are other vaccines available, so it's not the case that AZ or catching COVID are the only two ways to herd immunity.
I'm making the assumption that we want to reopen our economies again at some point, at which point the infection risk will obviously rise much higher than that (unless we have reached herd immunity). The only way to prevent that is to get people vaccinated. And right now for many countries in Europe AZ is the only vaccine available, since the supply of the mRNA vaccines is for too low.