> The employer is incentivized to hold these back in any case, absent some countervailing pressure
The countervailing pressure is that non-unionized employees are more likely to leave.
Most unions in the US place a high value on seniority. The more seniority you have, the more benefits you get from a union. Good for people who have been there for 10 years, bad for new employees looking to get jobs. This makes unionized employees less incentivized to leave and more incentivized to stay and strike. Leaving (even if for higher pay) would sacrifice that union seniority that many members value.
It's a very different negotiating dynamic.