The large scale war of today must include the nuclear scenario, and i do believe that rationally, nobody would want that. Unless there's some aspect for which a nation would sacrifice for - like religious zealotry.
Over the last 200 years, at least, how many major conflicts have started for secular politics vs religious politics. I feel there is a heavy skew towards the former.
Also if you want to get really nit picky one could argue 9/11 was more motivated by geopolitics.