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yboris

Relevant tweet: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1381967753234411530

J&J doses delivered: 7 million.

Reported blood clotting events: 6.

Daily risk of dying of COVID19 in the US: 1 in 330,000.

CDC and FDA: Pause the J&J vaccine.

Draw your own conclusion on how aligned these folks are with your interests.

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This is misleading. If you’re young and healthy, the chances of dying from COVID are basically zero. The chances of dying from a blood clot from a rushed vaccine are not. The people who died from blood clots probably would still be alive had they not taken the vaccine.

The risk is low, but I think the last I saw was a 0.01% IFR in the young, which comes out to 1 in 10,000. Still a higher risk than COVID at this point, although it's possible that they'll discover a higher incidence like with AZ.

> If you’re young and healthy, the chances of dying from COVID are basically zero.

Hundreds of young and healthy people have died from Covid-19.

The risk is “basically zero” but so is the current known 1 in 7 million risk of dying from this blood clotting.

Most of those cases haven't quite been "healthy."

Even then, let's assume they were. COVID is largely avoidable, if you don't mind being avoiding others. Directly getting a vaccine is not.

It's like saying X% of people riding in cars will be in accidents and die. Yeah, maybe, but that doesn't apply to you if you don't ride in a car in the first place.

> Most of those cases haven't quite been "healthy."

25% of those who died under age 21 had no pre-existing condition, according to the CDC analysis. https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/09/15/75-of-youths-who-...

I believe the data does support my statement that hundreds of young and healthy people have died from covid. The risk is close to zero, yes, but still greater than the reported risk from this vaccine.

Close to 3000 people ages 25 to 34 have officially died in the USA from covid-19. If the same 75%/25% division the cdc found for under 21 applies to this group, that’s 750 young and healthy people who died so far just in the age 25-34 age group.

> COVID is largely avoidable, if you don't mind being avoiding others

Huge assumption. Many workers need to work in person and are going to be exposed. Many others live in a home with someone who is an essential worker, or doesn’t believe in covid being dangerous or taking precautions.

It really isn’t fair to blame everyone catching covid today and say they could have simply avoided it. Also, getting a vaccine is absolutely avoidable. No one is being forcibly vaccinated right now.

> If you’re young and healthy, the chances of dying from COVID are basically zero

Death is not the only risk factor. Covid-19 carries the risk of serious complications for those who recover, even including those who are infected but asymptomatic.

https://jacksonhealth.org/persistent-pulmonary-problems-in-a...

> While the long-term consequences are still unknown

> Additional studies are required to fully understand the virus, but for now, follow-up testing is essential to understand the long-term effects of the virus.

> The people who died from blood clots probably would still be alive had they not taken the vaccine.

Isn't it just person (1 person), not people, at this point?

No, there are many.

Only one blood clot death suspected to be from the J&J vaccine, and another in critical condition.

I meant from all vaccines.

But there are 2 other vaccines that are still available so it's not like they're stopping all vaccinations. Another consideraton: J&J was/is having production problems so deliveries have been cut considerably - as such this probably won't be a very significant change to vaccination rates. I suspect the FDA will allow J&J vaccinations to resume in a couple of weeks. Maybe they'll recommend it not be used in women under 60 as has been done with the AZ vaccine in Europe. Even if they do that there would still be plenty of men eligible to get the J&J.

> Draw your own conclusion on how aligned these folks are with your interests.

What's this supposed to mean? Is the implication here that the CDC and FDA want to keep people from being vaccinated? WHy?

That tweet ignores that there are alternatives to the J&J vaccine, so implying that there is a binary decision between J&J or 1 in 330k death chance is flawed reasoning.

Also ignores risk by age group, which can be significant and relevant to someone’s risk profile.

I think this is an illustration of an issue that has been seen throughout the entire pandemic. Medicine != Public Health Policy. In general, I would say medicine is too dogmatic to decide on public policy, and public policy is too loose to operate medicine.

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