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Would a government need a warrant to pull records from an exchange to connect it to a real identity?

The usual way bitcoin payments are traceable are due to crypto-fiat exchanges requiring that information (AML & KYC regulations).

Wouldn't that make it effectively equivalent?

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Only if they can't get you with public information. Suppose that your transactions reveal enough about you to allow the government to profile you, arrange a stake out (and thus get you in another way) or something like that. Or you could have left some trace in a direction which is not that much protected (like you bought something physical which has been delivered to you).

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