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Comment by birktj | Hacker News Reader

Question: does the chip shortage only apply to the smallest process sizes? That is what I would assume, but with the talk about problems for car manufactures having supply issues it would seem the shortage extends to larger process sizes as well? (Do they really need the newest snapdragon processor in a modern car?)

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It's across the board. Makers of small scale microcontroller projects/kits (whose chips typically use 28nm and larger process nodes) are reporting problems getting parts. Apparently some of the parts the autos need are >100nm.

I suspect that this problem started with the Huwai sanctions causing lots of Chinese companies to start panic buying inventory not knowing of they're going to be the next hit with sanctions. Add to that the demand shifts caused by the pandemic. Then throw in other companies realizing how vulnerable they are (and therefore trying to add to their own inventories) and some speculators and it makes for a real mess.

No, it's actually much worse for legacy processes, discretes, and some components.

It's stuff that was usually made on non-300mm fabs, and 130nm+ nodes.

It isn't just integrated circuits, even components like resistors and capacitors are in short supply. Not to mention that raw materials like plastic resin are also going way up in lead time.

Other way around. Small process sizes have already been called for a long time ago so no changes were made in the demand. For example, TSMC's 5nm process was bought out by Apple two years ago. It's the more JIT processes with shorter order lead that have impacts.

Apple will be able to get things like the M1X with no problem but they will have trouble getting things like microprocessors used for power management.

COVID induced demands for consumer electronics, while constraining supply of ICs. There's lots of low-end chips (not the CPU or GPU, but say power controllers, etc) going into laptops and peripherals (mice, keyboard, etc.).

Hence the squeeze all around.

On top some distributors are selling whatever they have left at whatever market is willing to pay, which may mean 100x the usual price...

Everything is short in supply. Part of that is because analog chips generally use older processes anyway and part of it is that old fabs have a very long tail of selling older process size chips. I think right now the best bang for your buck is 40nm.

Looking at the amount of driver assists and video analysis solutions packed onto modern cars, maybe?

The view associated with Joseph Tainter, regarding collapse, is that collapse necessitates/involves retrenching at lower levels of complexity.

I wonder if auto has been moving to smaller processes just for better efficiency.

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