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Paid out "this year" - pretty weaselly. Are they going to pay out the value next year too or just cut it from the budget?

The job market is great, if people aren't happy with their comp they can find someone who wants to pay them more.

Answer the question.

They are paying out this year, then introducing a 10% profit share next year. But, as I said, this is just a compensation discussion. If people are unhappy they can renegotiate their comp or find someone else to pay them more.

I don't know what Basecamp's books look like, I don't have the clairvoyance to know what they will look like in the future..

humor a speculative question for a moment: would the "better deal" have been to give employees the option of how they'd like to receive their fringe benefits versus a one-size-fits-all edict, so that those with less tolerance for the volatility of profit sharing can enjoy a bit of stability with such fringe benefits if profits decline?

Especially after, as another commenter mentioned: the tax implication of cash payout?

Cash value != Benefit value.

That you interpret the cash value as being identical shows you trust management over the employees, who this actually effects...