The history of theses things in India seems to be the track that Covid followed everywhere.

Is it just human psychology that is the problem?

1st wave: everybody clamps down. R goes to < 1

2nd wave: people think it's over R goes >1, then clamp down again.

3rd wave: more of no. 2 but with a broader base of carriers across the nation.

3rd wave in India therefore will be really nasty based on other nations 3rd wave, unless their rapid vaccination plan gets a big percentage of the populace vaccinated over the next few months.