I'm not an expert in the area but I listen to experts like John Leonard, Rodney Brooks, and Missy Cummings who don't have a vested interest and I draw conclusions.
Trust me. I'd love to have FSD--although it's not without its problems--but I just don't see it in the near future whatever delusional software developers may think.
I know why companies like Uber presented themselves as they did. I'm genuinely curious whether Waymo thought they were closer than they were, drank too much of their own Kool-aid, or just lied.