Comment by rsj_hn | Hacker News Reader

Comment by rsj_hn | Hacker News Reader

Of course China is going to be emitting more carbon, they are trying to climb their way up to first world living standards. And why not, they have the human capital, they have the will, and they have the organizational capacity to make it happen.

They are not going to let the hangups of the West be a roadblock on that march.

Neither, for that matter, will India.

These types of worries are strictly for the West, and third world nations participate in the global warming outcry because they see an opportunity for obtaining subsidies from this project.

The moment there are costs instead of subsidies, and third world nations are portrayed as perpetrators deserving of fines instead of victims deserving of subsidies, you will see the developing world rapidly lose interest in this project of curtailing carbon emissions. It will be absolutely hilarious when people in the West realize that none of these nations are their allies in the fight against global warming, that everyone in the developing world is far more interested in improving their economy once the spigot of subsidies is cut off.

China is worried about technological progress, employment, and social stability. Everything else is nice-to-have. I don't blame them.

Global warming is going to hit everyone, developed or developing. The fact that China and other developing nations know this but are still willing to take the incoming damage just shows how much it sucks to be a undeveloped country. But for developed countries what probably sucks more is that this is a problem they cannot solve without the help and sacrifice of the poor majority of the world, and the carbon poor would love nothing more than watch the carbon rich suffer the same pain as them.

For once, the developed world is at the mercy of decisions made in the developing world, and suddenly they have to try and appease instead of ignore or bully. That cannot be a comfortable realization.

> "For once, the developed world is at the mercy of decisions made in the developing world, and suddenly they have to try and appease instead of ignore or bully. That cannot be a comfortable realization."

Well, that is certainly one way of looking at things. I have never encountered anyone who actually believes that, until now. The fact of the matter is that most people don't care a whole lot about global warming one way or another. Not in the U.S. Not in Europe, and certainly not in China. To be clear, I'm not saying that, if asked, "Do you care?" that they respond "No, I don't care." People like to view themselves as caring about things. The answer to "Do you care about X" is usually "Of course I care." - at least when you are asked by a stranger. But if asked "How much are you willing to spend", the answer is usually "very little.". So the revealed preferences in the US are not too different from revealed preferences in China.

68% of Americans wouldn't pay more than $10 a month to combat climate change. That's to "combat", not even "solve".

So I don't think most people are unsettled or even surprised at China ignoring climate change. If we are only willing to pay less than $120 per year, then you would expect a nation with 1/3 our income to be willing to spend very little. Think of all the ridiculous things Americans spend $10 a month on. Then draw a line and put global warming below that line. So an objective assessment doesn't lead to any uncomfortable truths other than there is only a minority that is truly concerned about this issue, and that such concern appears to be a luxury good even in the West, and therefore will not be a major factor in the developing world. An even cursory awareness of what's going on in the world would have made this very clear a long time ago to anyone who was willing to look outside their own social circle.

I believe American people will pay for it if it affects them, so will Chinese people. I remember when I was small, maybe before 8, I have never seen a plastic bag, everything was paper wrapped, with a string also made of papers. China is developing fast, so fast people are experience new things every day. Chinese people care about health a lot, you will see it in parks every morning, old people go exercise. People care about environment, government cares about environment, businesses start to care about environment.

"The fact that China and other developing nations know this but are still willing to take the incoming damage just shows how much it sucks to be a undeveloped country"

Ne'er have truer words been spoken. Welcome to the real world outside of the HN bubble.

Developed nations still have a lot of levers for meddling around with the behavior of developing nations. E.g. subsidizing clean technology, but also, sanctions and a level of political interference (which to be realistic hasn't gone very well in the past).

In the more extreme slivers of speculation, climate change might be the thing that undoes the very concept of nation state sovereignty, when the model of absolute freedom to do whatever runs into the reality that we have the technology to affect the entire earth. On the other hand this model wasn't all that old to begin with: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westphalian_sovereignty

Chinas 3rd world status is the problem of the Chinese government not the rest of the world.

In my opinion, China is taking it seriously. They just have to get their people out of poverty first (which they seem to be doing well).

One thing you can see them doing is trying to move people out of very old coal heated housing and into apartment buildings...

Some of my relatives in law live in these old buildings, here's their kitchen: https://travel.devonwinrick.com/images/IMG_20191215_111655%2...

It is not that there has been a new China since yesterday. I personally see it as part of propaganda western media conveniently pushing (including the rocket story). Interesting days.

Of course China is serious about environment, it affects Chinese people before everyone else. We have been improvements in many ways in China.

>That cannot be a comfortable realization.

I think you're absolutely right, but would argue that the majority in developed countries do not realize it whatsoever. Instead they simply take for granted that they are the problem so that they may imagine themselves the solution (c.f. carbon taxes in Canada, rich cities declaring climate emergencies they pretend they can help solve, etc.).

> The fact that China and other developing nations know this but are still willing to take the incoming damage just shows how much it sucks to be a undeveloped country.

No, all it shows is how selfish China is. It's a textbook tragedy of the commons. They get all the benefit of polluting but make us take on most of the cost. If there were somehow a way to make it so that all of China's pollution affected only China, they'd be taking it much more seriously, developed or undeveloped.

Much of China’s pollution is from industries that the West outsourced, and which support western consumption today. So it’s certainly not as simple as China being selfish.

I personally predict that there is a 10 years window for any developing country to jump over the entry barrier to a technology developed state, once automation takes over developed world, the window will be closed forever.

For developing world, it sucks both ways, with or without global warming.

The developed world of today did everything as they saw fit when they saw fit. They did not have to worry about global warming or any other issues.

Now that they are developed, it is unjust and unfair of them to say, "Hey we polluted the world in the first place, and became developed. Now you must put climate before development and remain underdeveloped".

As I see it, developed nations should reduce emission much below their goals so that countries like China, India, Indoneshia, and Brazil can prosper.

You cannot just say- remain poor because climate. We are rich and we brought this situation.

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