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Comment by devwastaken | Hacker News Reader

That's not how chia rewards you though. It's a lottery, and though chia may be around 1000 or so right now it could massively increase in the future. Current projections are something like 3-4 months to get a single reward. But if you could make potentially an extra 50K a year with some harddrives that's not a bad deal.

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BitCoin mining is also a lottery. I could stumble on a good hash using my own CPU. But the odds are in favour of the farms with ASICs.

btc can only be mined on asics

Simply not true.

https://gizmodo.com/mining-bitcoin-with-pencil-and-paper-164...

That "3-4 months" is going up at an exponential rate, and it's so bad now that by the time 3 months comes by the expected time to reward is 6 months. Even if you get 1 reward, you won't get a second reward unless you continuously keep buying drives and racks for them. You can't really get continuous passive income on a fixed set of hardware.

50K/year is impossible at this point with a consumer rig.

> Current projections are something like 3-4 months to get a single reward

You cant project time to win without knowing how many plots a farmer has. You've gotta have 100+ TB plotted (prolly closer to 140actually) at this point to have a chance at winning every 3-4 months.

A single plot would put you closer to 7 years.

That's just not accurate. See https://chiacalculator.com/ for more.

3-4 months is currently around 18 TB.

EDIT: 100 TB would get a coin every ~ 18 days on average.

> 3-4 months is currently around 18 TB.

That number does't account for how many more Chia farmers will exist in 1,2,3 months. It doesn't even account for linear extrapolation of total plots in the world, let alone exponential.

I currently have two plots farming and it looks like this:

  Farming status: Farming
  Total chia farmed: 0.0
  User transaction fees: 0.0
  Block rewards: 0.0
  Last height farmed: 0
  Plot count: 2
  Total size of plots: 202.674 GiB
  Estimated network space: 7357.090 PiB
  Expected time to win: 20 years and 1 month

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