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Comment by toomanyducks | Hacker News Reader

Where do you get that confidence? Reading the article, I'm mostly seeing somewhat deliberately hyped-up claims and hand-wavey references to AI, neither of which give me much confidence in this tech taking a tremendous leap anytime soon. Still very impressive, but as someone who knows nothing about the tech, I'm not sure why I should expect it to improve so quickly?

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The fact that we can apparently detect repeatable patterns of brain activity, and do it across a few modalities (handwriting, cursor movements) shows that a lot of the core problems are solved. We’ve achieved Proof of Concept.

With greater sensor fidelity, greater quantity of data, improved ML approaches combined with alternate detection targets (particularly subvocalisation) means that getting to faster than parity WPM seems like a realistic result. Incremental improvements to tech is something we humans are quite good at.

Well, I did say 1 - 3 decades, which isn't "anytime soon" I think. I just think the potential has been demonstrated, and to me it seems fairly feasible that if you hypothetically had a device that could transmit thoughts at near the speed of thought, you could get around 200 - 300 WPM. If it could somehow interpret more abstract things like images, then the information density could be higher, too.

I could be wrong, though. Maybe people's thinking rates wildly vary. And maybe my 170 WPM was pretty close to my actual speed of thought. It also may depend a lot on if it's something you're thinking about on the fly vs. regurgitating existing thoughts.

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