https://micro.coyotetracks.org/2021/04/21/the-mac-and.html
My argument from there is that Apple has been demonstrating a consistent philosophy since the start of the iPad:
- Macs are general purpose computers
- iPads/iPhones are application consoles, analogous to game consoles
That philosophy doesn't preclude securing macOS in annoying ways, but it does preclude locking down macOS like iOS. The notion that Apple would force all Mac apps to be installed from the App Store because it would increase their revenue simply doesn't hold water, because, as I noted then, the Venn diagram of "users likely to walk over such a change" and "users likely to spend boggling amounts of money on Apple hardware" is close to a perfect circle. Even if that's only a few percent of those high-ticket users, that's literally millions of lost unit sales.
Furthermore, I stand by my thoughts then that if Apple was ever going to try such a radical move, it would have been last year, with the introduction of Apple Silicon and the relatively radical redesign brought by macOS Big Sur.
The flip side of this philosophy, though, is that we're probably not going to ever see iOS open the way macOS is any more than they must for technical, market, or regulatory reasons.
My suspicion is that in the long run there's a new OS that will replace both macOS and iPadOS, and at that point, all bets may be off. But I don't think we're going to see that within the next few years.