Facebook, Google, TikTok w/eTok would move to their own store or to some shell they’ll set up and then move out of the App Store eventually you’ll be surprised how easy it would be for them to move their user base.
If they’ll be able to pull off shit like requiring you to allow location sharing in the background all the time to use the app or force you to share contacts for the app to load which they would definitely be able to do as there would be no policies in place to prevent that that alone would be worth the cost of migrating to their own store even if they’ll lose a few customers…
If you want to side load apps already then just buy a dev account and or use TestFlight there are ways to getting FOSS apps on your phone, it’s just has a buy in cost right now.
Allowing users to do that for free by having to register for a dev account and registering their device might be a good compromise if you really only want to allow side loading for FOSS uses.