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Comment by newacct583 | Hacker News Reader

It remains a "theory" in all cases, except ones where we've managed to actually observe the jump.

But yes: consensus among experts remains that this is a natural virus, precisely because (as per e.g. the linked article!) such pandemics are literally as old as life. We knew a big human pandemic was going to show up sooner or later, because it happens to some species or another every year or two.

It's true we can't rule out the lab theory as much as we'd like to. There was a good WSJ article a few weeks back claiming that western intelligence sources knew about a disease cluster among staff at the lab which would be consistent with the start of the pandemic. That at least is something to hang the more conspiratorial hats on.

But really, no one serious was "surprised" by covid in any meaningful way. It was going to happen.

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"It's true we can't rule out the lab theory as much as we'd like to."

Why is it desirable to rule it out? It's not only plausible, but the evidence seems to be accumulating, not diminishing. Thorough investigations seem very much warranted[1]. Let's not ignore the possibility because we wish such things can't/don't happen.

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/23/science/coronavirus-seque...

> the evidence seems to be accumulating, not diminishing

It really isn't. We have one good report, and a lot of conspiratorial dot connecting and string tying that is not good evidence and never was. It's enough to keep you guys going, but you're never going to win this at this rate. Consensus sits on the mechanism that produced a thousand other diseases.

And FWIW: of course it's desirable to reach a consensus. And it's decidedly undesirable for a handful of nuts deciding to have Their Own Truth in yet another area. Because the more you distrust experts in favor of your own thought leaders, the more likely this is to happen in the future.

To wit: Lab Leak Trutherism is of the same cloth as Big Lie election fraudurism, and climate denial, and 5G vaccine chipperism, and Storm Is Coming revisionism, and flat eartherism. It's one thing to investigate alternatives, it's quite another to keep flogging an unlikely theory because it fits your priors.

You were making a good rebuttal until "To wit: Lab Leak Trutherism is of the same cloth as Big Lie election fraudurism, and climate denial, ...".

I think we have nothing left to discuss.

And I genuinely can't tell if it's because you're offended that I likened your opinions about a lab leak to other conspiratorial nonsense, or because you believe that other nonsense and don't want to be forced to defend it.

Doesn't it strike you as perhaps notable that to people in the more mainstream scientific community, your opinions look like those of a flat earther?

You can show pretty clearly that the earth is round to anyone who's somewhat reasonable and is willing to understand an explanation of the math, but proving that an ancestor of the virus was never in a lab at any time between being in animals 30 years ago and now is pretty hard.

You would think, but no. In fact flat earthers have explanations for all that stuff. Showing them a globe doesn't work, because the people they trust tell them that that disproof is wrong.

In point of fact, a Lab Leaker might be more somewhat more scientifically literate, but the logical fallacy at work is exactly the same: believing in the truth of a subject simply because it lacks disproof is just plain wrong. And it leads to wrong conclusions.

Anyone looking at the evidence on covid rationally would say that, yes, a lab leak is a possibility. But that a natural virus remains the more likely scenario. Again: there's a pandemic every few years in some species. To date none have been started by scientists.

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