SpaceX's Starship could launch to orbit for first time as soon as July

Not a big fan of 'space.com' among space news sites.

This information is already out of date. The earliest possible launch license for launching a bunch of Starlink terminals is 1. August. A number of other licensing and regulatory issues are outstanding. Elon in a talk today mention 'next couple month'.

Looking at the progress of the launch site and required hardware I would be supervised if they managed it even in August. I would put my money on September.

That seems extremely unlikely. However, even a Sept launch date would be an AMAZING accomplishment.

Would love to compare cost and time for SLS vs this Starship launch.

Metaculus is not convinced: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-...

Ah, yes. I trust the internet's wisdom about the aerospace industry. After all the armchair quarterbacking I've seen around every other aerospace event I can't imagine a more reliable source of speculation.

Probability Markets are interesting in a way Twitter Trends are not

Yikes!