it's so weird. i know it'll be cold in feb in minnesota. i know this because i have experience. and that experience translates into my ability to give guidance. if you want to be taken serious, you need experience to be able to estimate.
"Cold" is not an adequate analogy for the sorts of estimates that non-delivery parts of businesses seem to think they are entitled to, and it's not reasonable to say people can't be taken seriously for rejecting that trap.
Some may claim they have personally experienced rain, so your model must have some faults, but just ignore those plebeians.