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I thought it was the Ottoman conquest of Constantinople? I think it's pretty well understood that the Western Roman Empire towards its end was plagued by pandemics, in-fighting, self-interest and loss of centralized control, and the pressures of migrating peoples due to climate change. The weakening of the Imperial power coincided with the rise of the power of the Christian church supplanting the anemic WRE state.

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That’s the trouble with the lead-poisoning theory, it’s one of those things where you can describe all the issues as the net result of poison.

The rise of the church always interests me in this story. As I understand it, Christianity was a kind of rebellious liberalizing movement which the state ultimately tried to coopt (Constantine). It’s pre-state adoption was a movement away from more brutal practices, such as crucifixion. Eventually it developed into a competing power structure.

Ottomans reuniting the eastern Mediterranean thereafter doesn't feel like a fall.

Mehmed II did declare himself Kayser-i Rum after taking Constantinople so perhaps you're right.

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