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I won't comment on how they came up with that number or how accurate it is, but Covid won't be the only killer. As one example, people who have heart attacks aren't going to get prompt care either with the medical system overworked and over capacity.

That was one of the goals of the lockdowns in the US. Keep the healthcare system operational for all the other responsibilities it needs to fulfill on top of pandemic response.

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Even if we shut down all medical facilities, 20% of the population dying is outlandish.

Myanmar's circumstances excluded.

20% might be high but in the absence of oxygen support most people over 65..70 will expire if they stay sick longer than a week with this damned virus.

I don't know the how big the senior population of Myanmar is but 10% is not unreasonable.

According to a 2020 report, [0] the hospitalisation rate for over-80s is around 20%. The hospitalisation rate for over-65s will be far lower.

[0] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196573/covid-19-one-five-ove...

In any given year very few people have heart attacks, or otherwise require advanced medical care to survive. So that would have only a miniscule impact on the overall death toll. Especially in a nation like Myanmar with a median age of only 29 years.

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