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In my opinion, an IPO from a competent organization will release at a price that remains stable throughout the first week or so. If it goes up, the people who helped you with the IPO pocket it, and if it goes down everyone loses.

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If it goes down the owners do the company have in a sense “won” - they sold their stock for more than what it was worth

Except a bunch of their shares will be locked in for 180 days. So if it leads to a long term undervaluation it might be negative in the long run.

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